Small Grain Export Potential and Government Objectives in Zimbabwe: A Means-ends Inconsistency?

Abstract

AEE Working Paper.The potential for Zimbabwe to develop viable small grain export markets within the SADCC region will depend crucially on: 1. Zimbabwe's ability to produce reliable marketed sorghum and millet surpluses at a cost low enough to be competitive with C.I.F. import prices of coarse grains in other SADCC countries: and 2. the development of reliable and effective import demand for small grains among other SADCC countries. Inherent within conditions (1) are questions related to the incidence of response to increased small grain production incentives, the strong random influence of weather as a determinant of small grain export supplies, transport constraints and other marketing problems. Within conditions (2) are issued concerning the reliability of weather-induced import demand within the region, the enthusiasm of donors to finance triangular transactions over the long run, and the scope for other SADCC countries to translate their stated food self-sufficiency goal in reality. This paper examines the potential for these two fundamental conditions to be met, and more broadly considers whether their achievement would actually be consistent with Zimbabwe's agricultural policy objectives