The importance of ensuring that African countries can meet their rising energy needs in a low-carbon way that also benefits the poor, is widely accepted. The so-called ‘rising powers’, such as China, Brazil and India are already investing in energy infrastructure in Africa, and these countries could support transitions to low-carbon development since they are currently some of the world’s largest investors in solar, wind, hydropower and biofuels. Yet, critically, the
energy needs of poorer groups are not currently shaping policy and investment decisions and so energy access considerations are not being adequately addressed where low-carbon  energy transitions are emerging. Northern donors have a role to play both as knowledge and financial brokers between rising powers and African countries, and in targeting investment towards small-scale and community-managed renewable energy systems, which would directly help the poor majority that are off-grid.Department for International Development; ESRC project ES/J01270X/

Bulkeley, H

Newell, P

Power, M

English

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ISSUE 115 • MAY 2016
The importance of ensuring that African countries can meet their rising energy 
needs in a low-carbon way that also benefits the poor, is widely accepted. The 
so-called ‘rising powers’, such as China, Brazil and India are already investing 
in energy infrastructure in Africa, and these countries could support transitions 
to low-carbon development since they are currently some of the world’s 
largest investors in solar, wind, hydropower and biofuels. Yet, critically, the 
energy needs of poorer groups are not currently shaping policy and investment 
decisions and so energy access considerations are not being adequately 
addressed where low-carbon energy transitions are emerging. Northern donors 
have a role to play both as knowledge and financial brokers between rising 
powers and African countries, and in targeting investment towards small-scale 
and community-managed renewable energy systems, which would directly help 
the poor majority that are off-grid.
 Rising Powers, 
 Lowering Emissions?
A clean energy revolution for 
Africa?
A new clean energy revolution for 
Africa was the promise being held out 
by donors, governments and investors 
at the critical Paris climate change 
summit in December 2015, amid claims 
of billions of dollars of investment being 
mobilised for renewable energy on the 
continent. The Africa Renewable Energy 
Initiative (AREI), for example, aims 
to build at least 100GW of new and 
additional renewable energy generation 
capacity by 2020, and 300GW by 2030. 
Currently, access to energy services in 
sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest of any 
world region. Large swathes of the 
population across Africa do not have 
access to electricity, which has significant 
implications for reaching the Sustainable 
Development Goal to ‘Ensure access 
to affordable, reliable, sustainable and 
modern energy for all’. Furthermore, 
with the population expected to both 
grow and urbanise over the coming 
century, energy demand is set to grow 
by around 80 per cent by 2040, much 
of which will be met by expanded 
use of fossil fuels unless incentives 
are put in place to pursue alternative 
pathways. In a context of vast inequalities 
and widespread unemployment, 
the prospects of a transition to 
a lower-carbon economy will be 
heavily determined by whether ‘just 
transitions’ are possible – ones which 
protect and enhance the livelihoods 
and opportunities available to socially 
excluded groups from a dramatic shift in 
the provision of energy.
The role of ‘rising powers’ in 
low-carbon transitions in Africa
So far the role of rising powers such as 
China, Brazil and India has been discussed 
principally in terms of the exploitative 
acquisition of natural resources such as 
coal, oil and gas. Their growing presence 
in Africa is often represented as a kind 
of neo-colonial resource ‘plunder and 
grab’ reminiscent of the darkest days of 
empire. But recently completed research 
on these issues, supported by the ESRC, 
suggests that Brazil, India and China are 
playing a key but mixed role in sub-
Saharan Africa when it comes to energy: 
they are both investing in renewables, 
supporting technology development 
and engaging with policy initiatives and 
“Access to 
energy services 
in sub-Saharan 
Africa is the 
lowest of any 
world region.”
also investing in high-carbon fossil fuel energy 
pathways. This results in an incoherence to 
the energy transitions underway, driven by 
contradictions resulting from the exploitation 
of coal and gas at the same time as investing 
in solar photovoltaics (PV), biofuels and other 
renewable energy technologies. Critically, 
the energy needs of poorer groups are not 
shaping policy and investment decisions and 
so energy access considerations are not being 
adequately addressed where low-carbon 
energy transitions are emerging. 
Based on an extensive database of public 
and private investments in low-carbon forms 
of energy in South Africa and Mozambique 
as well as interviews with government 
officials, donors, corporate and NGO 
actors, the research found a more complex 
and differentiated story of rising power 
engagement in sub-Saharan Africa. It explored 
the power relationships at play in decision-
making, policy structures and investment 
patterns in renewable energy development in 
Mozambique and South Africa involving the 
rising powers. 
The research looked at: 
• Who governs energy transitions in these 
contexts, how and to what purpose? 
• Who sets the terms of transition? 
• Who participates in decision-making on 
energy policy and whose interests are 
served?
• What are the implications for accessibility 
and sustainability for energy services in the 
region?
Comparing contexts and energy 
pathways in Mozambique and 
South Africa 
The rising powers are increasingly 
incorporating renewable energy projects 
into their aid and loan portfolios in Africa, 
driven by diverse economic and political 
goals. China, India, Brazil and South Africa 
are all in the top ten global rankings for 
clean energy investment. In 2015, China 
was again by far the largest investor in clean 
energy, increasing its dominance with a 
17 per cent increase to US$110.5bn ahead of 
the US and Europe. And while Brazil’s clean 
energy investment slipped 10 per cent to 
US$7.5bn in 2015, India’s gained 23 per cent 
to US$10.9bn, the highest since 2011, while 
South Africa’s investment rose to US$4.5bn, 
up 329 per cent according to Bloomberg 
New Energy Finance. 
Yet there is no single energy trajectory 
in each country. Instead, multiple energy 
transitions are unfolding with low-carbon 
transitions being pursued and enacted in 
different ways across these regimes with 
multiple state agencies and types of business 
invested in different energy pathways. There 
is a widespread exploitation of coal and gas 
alongside investments in solar PV, biofuels and 
other renewable energy technologies. 
Overall, rising powers are not the determining 
or dominant actors in any low-carbon 
development sector in either country. Where 
there are renewable energy investments 
from rising power economies, they are 
not predominantly driven by state-led 
South-South Cooperation objectives. Often 
renewable energy does not form a major part 
of bilateral cooperation agendas between 
the rising powers and Mozambique and 
South Africa. Rather there is a wide range 
of state, non-state and private actors within 
each rising power and no singular, coherent 
RISING POWERS, LOWERING EMISSIONS?  ISSUE 115 • MAY 2016 www.ids.ac.uk
“China, India, 
Brazil and 
South Africa 
are all in the 
top ten global 
rankings for 
clean energy 
investment.”
Multiple energy transitions 
in sub-Saharan Africa
High carbon
• Continued coal-based electrification in South Africa
• New investment in fossil fuel extraction by corporate and 
government actors from Europe, South Africa, China and 
India (coal and gas)
Meso-scale renewables
• Independent power producers in South Africa include 
public and private foreign investors
• Private sector foreign investment in Eastern Africa 
(e.g. Google)
• Hydro and geothermal (Kenya)
Small-scale renewables
• Donor finance predominately in rural areas
• Some municipal-scale programmes in urban South Africa
• Private investment from businesses and households
RISING POWERS, LOWERING EMISSIONS?  ISSUE 115 • MAY 2016 www.ids.ac.uk
“To ensure that the 
low-carbon transition 
is socially just and 
developmentally 
beneficial, proper 
attention will need to 
be paid to developing 
policy processes and 
institutions that 
ensure the interests 
of poorer groups are 
adequately 
represented.”
state-led push for overseas renewable energy 
investment from any of the rising powers. It 
is also the case that other economies, such 
as South Korea, are becoming increasingly 
significant in the transitions of each country 
alongside the continuing importance of 
established actors such as European bilateral 
donors and renewable energy technology 
companies.
Who will benefit from the new 
energy transitions?
New revenue streams promise to expand 
South-South Cooperation and investments 
in power generation and rural electrification 
aiming to deliver ‘clean energy revolution’ in 
Africa. However, there are concerns across the 
region as to who will benefit from the new 
investment based on experience so far.
In South Africa there are worries about 
who will benefit from the procurement 
process for renewable energy. This is partly 
shaped by wider preoccupations with 
labour and Black Economic Empowerment 
(BEE). National priorities of localisation and 
strong trade unions are highly influential 
over infrastructural and industrial processes 
and there is mistrust of cheap Chinese 
imports in all sectors. This is being addressed 
by a heavily regulated renewable energy 
policy environment. But despite the fact 
that the Renewable Energy Independent 
Power Producer Procurement Programme 
(RE-IPPPP) has been celebrated globally 
as a leading model for independent power 
procurement, as well as for its progressive 
socioeconomic development and community 
ownership requirements, ensuring universal 
energy access is not the main objective 
of commercial energy developers whose 
business models are determined by a desire 
for high returns over short time frames. 
Indeed many investors are interested in 
generating electricity in Africa precisely 
because electricity costs are so high, enabling 
quick and high returns to be made.
In Mozambique, meanwhile, the National 
Energy Fund (Fundo de Energia – FUNAE), 
which is responsible for expanding energy 
access for rural people through off-grid 
decentralised power generation, maintains a 
centralised, top-down and techno-managerial 
approach and there has been little evidence 
of local consultation and popular participation. 
Questions remain about how much FUNAE’s 
projects have increased the percentage of 
population with electricity access. Whilst 
Mozambique’s electricity grid is clearly 
expanding, much of the grid extension 
has been focused on connecting urban 
and semi-urban spaces. The state has also 
typically prioritised the needs of large-scale 
industrial consumers and energy-intensive 
mega-projects and is attracted by the 
lucrative commercial possibilities presented 
by the export of electricity to neighbouring 
countries. Often this has led to a heavy 
focus on large-scale hydropower projects (in 
some cases involving companies from China, 
India and Brazil), but many of the proposed 
schemes involve the displacement of rural 
people, the disruption of their livelihoods and 
the deterioration of local ecosystems and 
have been contested by local civil society and 
environmental groups. 
In both South Africa and Mozambique, 
therefore, there is a prioritisation of 
commercial providers of energy in ways 
which have little to do with the expansion of 
energy access or increasing its affordability. 
As a result, the socioeconomic benefits of 
the development of energy infrastructure 
are not being diffused or experienced evenly 
across the energy landscape, reinforcing the 
key question of whose energy needs are 
represented and acted upon in policy. In sum, 
whether or not the growing ambitions of 
the international community to lend political 
and financial support to a low-carbon 
transition in Africa are realistic and achievable 
will depend on the active engagement of 
a wide range of actors in building a low-
carbon pathway. 
Rising powers have a potentially pivotal 
role to play in how this scenario unfolds. 
But based on current trends they may be 
just as likely to capitalise on investment 
opportunities in new fossil fuel frontiers in 
Africa as in the much hyped clean energy 
revolution. To ensure that the low-carbon 
transition is socially just and developmentally 
beneficial, proper attention will need to 
be paid to developing policy processes and 
institutions that ensure the interests of 
poorer groups are adequately represented. 
Only then will there be sustainable energy 
for all.
IDS POLICY BRIEFING ISSUE 115 • MAY 2016 www.ids.ac.uk
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Further reading
Baker, L. (2015) ‘The Evolving 
Role of Finance in South Africa’s 
Renewable Energy Sector’, 
Geoforum 64: 146–56 
Baker, L. (2015) ‘Renewable 
Energy in South Africa’s 
Minerals–Energy Complex: 
A “Low-Carbon” Transition?’, 
Review of African Political 
Economy 42.144: 245–61 
Baker, L.; Newell, P. and Phillips, 
J. (2014) ‘The Political Economy 
of Energy Transitions: The Case 
of South Africa’, New Political 
Economy 19.6: 791–818
Newell, P. and Bulkeley, H. 
(2016) ‘Landscape for Change? 
International Climate Policy and 
Energy Transitions: Evidence 
from Southern Africa’, 
Climate Policy. DOI 
10.1080/14693062.2016. 
1173003
Power, M.; Newell, P.; Baker, L. 
et al. (2016) ‘The Political 
Economy of Energy Transitions 
in Mozambique and South 
Africa: The Role of the Rising 
Powers’, Energy Research and 
Social Science 17 July: 10–19 
Credits
This IDS Policy Briefing was written 
by Peter Newell, University of 
Sussex, and Marcus Power and 
Harriet Bulkeley, University of 
Durham. It draws on research 
from the ESRC-funded project 
‘The Rising Powers, Clean 
Development and the Low 
Carbon Transition in Sub-
Saharan Africa’ ES/J01270X/1 
and was produced under the 
IDS Rising Powers for 
International Development 
programme, funded by the UK 
Department for International 
Development.  
The opinions expressed are 
those of the authors and do not 
necessarily reflect the views of 
IDS or the UK government’s 
official policies. 
Readers are encouraged to 
quote and reproduce material 
from the IDS Policy Briefing series. 
In return, IDS requests due 
acknowledgement and quotes 
to be referenced as above.
AG Level 2 Output ID: 165
© Institute of Development Studies, 2016 
ISSN 1479-974X
Policy recommendations
1. The need for a rounded view of technology development and diffusion
The research suggests the need to shift away from a narrow focus on the 
transfer of technology hardware from Northern to Southern countries towards 
a more rounded view of technology development and diffusion if access, 
capacity and innovation are to be more meaningfully nurtured. This means 
learning lessons from transitions in practice and the role of a multiplicity of 
actors and ecosystems of finance in bringing them about. Assumptions about 
the role of the state, technology transfer, finance and the potential of market 
mechanisms often fail to take into account local realities and need to be 
revisited.
2. Combine renewable energy investment with a strategic, inclusive approach 
for off-grid populations
There is clearly much to do in ensuring that inclusive priority-setting processes 
help to respond to the energy and technology needs of the vast swathes of 
the population that are currently off-grid. Donors can add substantial value 
by targeting those social groups, regions, projects and technologies that 
governments and the private sector are not interested in. For example, the UK 
could focus investment on small-scale and community-managed renewable 
energy systems that would directly help the poor majority that are off-grid in 
places like Mozambique to achieve a degree of energy access and security. This 
would ensure that investments, jobs and training stay in those communities 
and that technologies and projects are appropriate to local needs and settings. 
Mobilising investment for renewable energy is a worthy goal, but it needs to be 
combined with a strategic approach to meeting the energy needs of all groups 
in society.
3. Northern donors have a vital role as knowledge and financial brokers 
between African countries and rising powers
Given shifting geo-politics, while Northern donors are often not the primary 
actors, they can also seek to play a role as knowledge and financial brokers 
between rising powers such as China and African countries, seeking to steer aid 
and investment towards lower-carbon and more pro-poor interventions, and 
through the conditions they attach to the money they provide to multilateral 
institutions they can indirectly shape energy trajectories towards just transitions 
in the global South.


Rising Powers, Lowering Emissions?

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Rising Powers, Lowering Emissions?

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