We use data from the 1981 and 1991 censuses of India to examine
(a) sex ratios among infants aged under 2, (b) child mortality (q5) by
sex, and (c) estimated period sex ratios at birth (SRB) calculated by
reverse survival methods, to see whether bias against female children
persists during development and fertility decline, and whether techniques
of prenatal sex determination and abortion of female foetuses are
spreading in India as elsewhere in Asia.
In 1981, rural and urban infancy sex ratios and estimated SRB for
most states appear within the ‘normal’ range (104-106 males/100
females). However, urban Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Jammu
and Kashmir in the North / North-West zone appear masculine (108 or
more). In 1991 however, these North / North-Western urban areas show
starkly masculine SRB’s, as do the corresponding rural areas, Delhi, UP,
and urban Gujarat, Bihar, Rajasthan, MP, Maharashtra, Assam and
Arunachal Pradesh. Values reach as high as 118 for urban Punjab.
The sex ratios of child mortality indicate that despite mortality
declines, many regions that showed female disadvantage in 1981
continued to do so in 1991, and some areas worsened. Some Southern
regions that showed ‘normal’ mortality sex ratios in 1981 now have ratios
adverse to females in 1991.
This increase in masculinity of period SRB’s indicates that the
preference for male children in India is unchanged by fertility and
mortality decline and socio-economic development. Since the increased
masculinity is more in urban areas, which have higher literacy rates and
better coverage of vital registration and health services, it suggests that
the trend is due to the spread of prenatal sex determination and selective
abortion of female foetuses rather than female under-registration or
infanticide. The trend coexists with the excess female child mortality
and female infanticide persisting in many parts of the country, for which
we summarize evidence. In the aggregate, parents in India thus do not
appear to be substituting prenatal for post-natal sex selection techniques
