Expert elicitation to inform a cost effectiveness analysis of screening for renal cancer: methodological and practical considerations

Abstract

Background: Population screening for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) using ultrasound has the potential to improve survival outcomes; however a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) has yet to be performed. Due to the lack of existing evidence, we performed structured expert elicitation to derive unknown quantities to inform the CEA. Objectives: To elicit the cancer stage distribution (proportion of individuals with each stage of cancer) for different RCC screening scenarios and the annual transition probabilities for undiagnosed disease becoming diagnosed in the NHS. Methods: The study design and reporting adhered to the Reporting Guidelines for the Use of Expert Judgement in Model-Based Economic Evaluations. The elicitation was conducted face-to-face or via telephone between each individual expert and the facilitator, aided by online material. For multinomial data, Connor Mosimann and modified Connor Mosimann distributions were fitted for each expert and for all experts combined using mathematical linear pooling. Results: A total of 24 clinical experts were invited, and 71% participated (7 urologists, 6 oncologists, 4 radiologists). The modified Connor Mosimann distribution provided the best fit for the majority of elicited quantities. Greater uncertainty was noted for the elicited transition probabilities compared to the elicited stage distributions. Conclusion: We performed the first expert elicitation of RCC screening parameters, crucial information which will inform the CEA of screening. Additionally, the elicited quantities may enable future health economic evaluations assessing the value of diagnostic tools and pathways in RCC