CO2 emissions from human activities, the main contributor to global climate change, are set to rise again in 2014 reaching 40 billion tonnes CO2 The natural carbon ‘sinks’ on land and in the ocean absorb on average 55% of the total CO2 emissions, thus slowing the rate of global climate change Increasing CO2 in the oceans is causing ocean acidificatio

Andrew, RM

Bakker, Dorothee C. E.

Le Quere, Corinne

Moriarty, Roisin

Peters, GP

English

University of East Anglia digital repository

Global Carbon Budget Ocean Carbon SinkGlobal Carbon CycleCarbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas emitted to the atmosphere by human activities, mainly from burning fossil fuels and cement production, and from deforestation and other land-use change. The emitted CO2 is either absorbed by the ocean and land, or it remains in the atmosphere.Key Messages	 CO2 emissions from human activities, the main contributor to global climate change, are set to rise again in 2014 reaching 40 billion tonnes CO2	 The natural carbon ‘sinks’ on land and in the ocean absorb on average 55% of the total CO2 emissions, thus slowing the rate of global climate change	 Increasing CO2 in the oceans is causing ocean acidificationOther references:Boden et al (2013) CDIAC, cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htmlDlugokencky and Tans (2013) NOAA-ESRL, www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/Fuss et al (2014) Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2392 Giglio et al (2014) Journal Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20042Houghton et al (2012) Biogeosciences doi:10.5194/bg-9-5125-2012Joos et al (2013) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, doi: 0.5194/acp-13-2793-2013Keeling et al (1976) Tellus, doi: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.xKhatiwala et al (2013) Biogeosciences, doi:10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013Landschützer et al (2014), Global Biogeochemical Cycles, doi:10.1002/2014GB004853Pfeil et al (2013) ESSD, doi:10.5194/essd-5-125-2013Raupach et al (2014) Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2384Rödenbeck et al (2014) Biogeosciences, doi:10.5194/bg-11-4599-2014Sabine et al (2013) ESSD, doi:10.5194/essd-5-145-2013Stocker et al (2013) WGI, AR5, IPCC, www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/Global Carbon Budget 2014 was published in: Le Quéré et al (2014) Global Carbon Budget 2014 (in discussion).  ESSDD,  doi:10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014Friedlingstein et al (2014) Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets. Nature Geoscience,  doi:10.1038/ngeo2248SOCAT version 2 data products were published in:Bakker et al (2014) An update to the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT version 2). ESSD, doi:10.5194/essd-6-69-2014.About UsThe Global Carbon Project (GCP) is a global research platform. It assists scientists in establishing the knowledge base for supporting policy debate and action to slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. GCP works under the auspices of the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and Future Earth.The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is an activity of the marine carbon research community. It provides data products of surface ocean CO2.CARBOCHANGE is a Collaborative Project funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme to investigate the role of the ocean in the uptake of carbon under changing climate conditions.Multiple organisations and research groups contribute to achieving the aims of the GCP, SOCAT and CARBOCHANGE. This summary was compiled by R Moriarty1, DCE Bakker1, RM Andrew2, GP Peters2, C Le Quéré1, the 2014 Global Carbon Budget Team and SOCAT contributors.1 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK,  2 Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), NorwayAcknowledgements: We thank all people who provided the data and analysis used here. DCEB and CLQ were supported by the EC project CARBOCHANGE (264879) and RM by GEOCarbon (283080). GPP and RMA were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). Some statements are from the IPCC WGI Summary for Policymakers key statements. Carbon FuturesLarge and sustained mitigation is required to keep global average warming below 2ºC	 Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. 	 The latest update of the Global Carbon Budget shows that future CO2 emissions cannot exceed 1,200 billion tonnes CO2 for a likely (66%) chance of keeping average warming under 2ºC (since pre-industrial times)	 At current rates of CO2 emissions the ‘quota’ would be used within a generation (about 30 years)	 A large part of all known fossil fuel reserves may need to remain untapped to keep average warming under 2ºC Figure 6: Emissions are on track for 3.2-5.4ºC ‘likely’ increase in average temperature (since pre-industrial). Source: Fuss et al 2014, CDIAC, IPCC, Global Carbon Budget 2014Linkswww.globalcarbonproject.org              www.socat.infoGeological reservoirsFossil fuel & cement 32.6 ± 1.5 Land-use change3.3 ± 1.8 Land sink10.6 ± 2.9 Ocean sink9.5 ± 1.8 Atmospheric growth15.8 ± 0.4 Global carbon dioxide budget (gigatonnes of CO2 per year) 2004-2013© Global Carbon Project 2014Designed by the IGBPFigure 1: Schematic representation of the perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by human activities, averaged globally for the decade 2004-2013. Source: Le Quéré et al 2014, Global Carbon Budget 2014Ocean Carbon SinkThe ocean absorbed one quarter of the total CO2 emissions from human activities each year	 The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) provides a comprehensive, 44 year record of 10.1 million surface water CO2 measurements for the world’s oceans and coastal seas	 SOCAT enables detection of changes in the ocean carbon sink and in ocean acidification	 The ocean absorbed about 10.6 billion tonnes CO2 in 2013, 27% of total emissions	 Further uptake of CO2 by the ocean will increase ocean acidification1968-201180°N40°N0°40°S80°S100°E                     160°W                      60°W                         40°ESurface water fCO2 (µatm)240  280   320  340  350   360   370  380   390   400  4401960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010051015YearOcean carbon sink (GtCO¿/yr)???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?????????????????????????????????? ?????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????? Figure 3: Distribution of CO2 observations in the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas. Source: Bakker et al. 2014Figure 4: Estimates of the ocean carbon sink are made from models combined with long-term observations (black, uncertainty in grey shading) and from other methods using the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (red and orange). Source: Rödenbeck et al 2014, Landschützer er al 2014, Global Carbon Budget 2014Figure 2: Evolution of globally averaged surface atmospheric CO2 concentration (in parts per million). Source: NOAA-ESRL after 1980 and Scripps Institution of Oceanography before 1980, Global Carbon Budget 2014Atmospheric CO2 ConcentrationThe concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to increase	 Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by 43% since pre-industrial times, a level unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years	 Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by 2 parts per million (ppm) per year on average in the last decade (2004-2013), equivalent to an increase of 20 billion tonnes CO2 in 2013 alone	 Daily averages went above 400 ppm for the first time at the Mauna Loa Observatory in May 2013	 CO2 monitoring at Mauna Loa began in 1958 and constitutes the longest record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurementsNatural CO2 SinksEmissions are split between the atmosphere, land and ocean	 All components of the carbon cycle have grown since 1959 except CO2 emissions from land-use change 	 Global emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels and cement production reached 36 billion tonnes CO2 in 2013 and are projected to reach 37 billion tonnes CO2 in 2014, 65% above 1990 levels	 Global emissions of CO2 from deforestation and other land-use change were about 3.3 billion tonnes CO2 in 2013 	 The land carbon sink is particularly sensitive to climate and is the primary cause of the large interannual variability observed in atmospheric CO2???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????? ???????????????????????? ?????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????Figure 5: Cumulative contributions to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, cement and land-use change, and their division among the land, ocean and atmosphere from 1870 to 2013. Source: based on data from CDIAC, NOAA-ESRL, Houghton et al 2012, Giglio et al 2013, Joos et al 2013, Khatiwala et al 2013, Global Carbon Budget 2014. Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint

Global Carbon Budget: Ocean carbon sink.

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