In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the
determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss
is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big
target for the opponent. However, the opponent may fail to show their natural
batting performance in the second innings due to a number of factors, including
deteriorated pitch conditions and excessive pressure of chasing a high target
score. The advantage of batting first has been highlighted in the literature
and expert opinions, however, the effect of batting and bowling order on match
outcome has not been investigated well enough to recommend a solution to any
potential bias. This study proposes a probability theory-based model to study
venue-specific scoring and chasing characteristics of teams under different
match outcomes. A total of 1117 one-day international matches held in ten
popular venues are analyzed to show substantially high scoring advantage and
likelihood when the winning team bat in the first innings. Results suggest that
the same 'bat-first' winning team is very unlikely to score or chase such a
high score if they were to bat in the second innings. Therefore, the coin toss
decision may favor one team over the other. A Bayesian model is proposed to
revise the target score for each venue such that the winning and scoring
likelihood is equal regardless of the toss decision. The data and source codes
have been shared publicly for future research in creating competitive match
outcomes by eliminating the advantage of batting order in run scoring