Póster presentado en: 7th EMS Annual Meeting and 8th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology 2007 (ECAM) celebrado del 1 al 5 de octubre de 2007 en San Lorenzo del Escorial, Madrid

Petisco de Lara, Santos Eduardo

English

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

USE OF AN ANALOG METHOD TO DOWNSCALE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS OVER PENINSULAR SPAIN AND BALEARIC ISLANDSS. E.  PetiscoInstituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid (Spain)   icj@inm.esOBJECTIVES? This work is part of a more general work aiming to obtainclimatic change scenarios for Spain for the whole XXI century, by using several global climate models and regionalizationtechniques with diverse emission scenarios, in order toestimate uncertainties of the projections. The main results ofthe general work can be accessed from INM web.? Here we show the results of one of the regionalizationmethods utilized, based on synoptic analogs.? We analyse regional, annual and seasonal projections. ofmaximum and minimum temperature and precipitationchanges, over Peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands in theperiod 2071-2100, with respect to the reference period 1961-1990.TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY (maximum or minimum) (Borén y Ribalaygua,1997)Linear regression equation built from a step by step method from data in the estimation point of 150 synopticanalogs to each study day.Possible Predictors:500/1000 ThicknessTheoretical sunshine in the study day.Disimilarity with the study dayWeighed average of the average temperature in the 10 days before the study dayPRECIPITATION ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY (Petisco,2005)? A weighted average of the estimation point precipitation of a number of analogs to the study day, is calculated.? The weights depend on the disimilarity of each analog with the study day.? The disimilarity includes the synoptic disimilariy and the disimilarity of predictors calculated on the estimation zone. ? The number of analogs and the predictors used depend on the study day synoptic pattern and the estimation point.? Possible predictors: geopotential, wind components and vorticity at 1000 and 500 hPa. 1000/500 thermal wind intensity and geopotential tendency at 1000 hPa.REFERENCESGeneracion de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para España (2007), INM, Madrid (http://www.inm.es/web/izq/noticias/meteonoti/pdf/Escenarios_20070402.pdf)Boren R., Ribalaygua J., Balairón L., (1997), Método Analógico de Simulación de Escenarios Climáticos a escala Comarcal. Informe Técnico   nº 4. Servicio de Variabilidad y Predicción del Clima, INM, Madrid.Petisco de Lara S.E., Martín Herreros J.M., Gil Fernández D. (2005),  Método de estima de precipitación mediante “downscaling.  Nota técnica nº 11 del Servicio de Variabilidad y Predicción del Clima, INM, MadridRESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSAnnualWinterSpringSummerAutumnCHANGE (%) OF ANNUAL AND SEASONAL MEAN PRECIPITATIONFOR  (2071-2100) WITH RESPECT TO (1961-1990)CHANGE OF ANNUAL AND SEASONAL MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATUREFOR (2071-2100) WITH RESPECT TO (1961-1990)AnnualWinterSummerCHANGE OF ANNUAL AND SEASONAL MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATUREFOR (2071-2100) WITH RESPECT TO (1961-1990)AnnualWinterSummer7th EMS Annual Meeting8th European Conference on Applications ofMeteorologySan Lorenzo de El Escorial, Spain, 01 – 05 October2007 Scenario A2 Scenario A2Scenario B2 Scenario B2DATA ? Gridded (50 km resolution) Tmax, Tmin, precipitacion daily data based on INM stations(Boren and Ribalaygua 1997)? Reanalysis NCEP (Kalnay et al, 1996), 1961-1990? Model climate simulations from ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al, 1996), CGCM2 (Flato and Boer, 2000), HadAM3 (Pope et al, 2000), for reference(1961-1990) and projections IPCC SRES A2 and B2 (2011-2100).CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVESThe usage of different AOGCMS and SRES-IPCC with the same SDS method has allowed to explore the behaviourof climate change downscaled projections at scales of 50 km. The quantification of the different sources ofuncertainties was as well explored in the frame of a more general project also involving different dowscalingmethods based on RCMs and SDS. This work, based on IPCC-TAR models, will be repeated with a more advanceversion of the method here described using more IPCC-AR4 AOGCMs and SRES-IPCC in the context of a biggerproject aiming to produce downscaled climate change projections for Spain together with a comprehensiveevaluation of different sources of uncertainties.RESULTSAlthough most of the downscaled projections were computed for the whole 21st century, only results for 2071-2100 are commented. A) Projections of precipitationProjections based on most GCMs and IPCC SRES show a predominant reduction of precipitation, especially under A2 scenario. The remarkable differences both in percentual value and geographical distribution highlight the big uncertaintyassociated to climate change precipitation projections over Spain. Nevertheless, a  noticeable trend to annual reductionseems to appear over southern half of Peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands. In winter season, most projections show decreasing precipitation over almost all the southern half of Peninsular Spain, and Balearic Islands. The uncertainty ishigher over the northern half, where some models y scenarios show some increase for some areas. In summer time, there appears a predominant decrease over northwest, northern coast, southern Peninsula and Balearic Islands. A smaller decrease is shown over the remaining area, where some models and scenarios even show increases. In spring, it is noticeable a predominant decrease, smaller over the eastern region with some light increases over areas ofMediterranean Coast. Finally, although some models show a slight increase over certain areas, there is a general trendtowards decrease, not so clear over the eastern area.B) Projections of maximum temperatureThe pattern of maximum temperature change is rather similar for all GCMs and scenarios here considered, showing a marked increase over the whole country. Warming is greater inland and not so high over costal regions. Thetemperature increase shows also a noticeable annual cycle with bigger warming in summer time. As expected, temperature changes are bigger in more emitting scenarios. The projections based on ECHAM4-OPYC show a remarkable warming compared with those based on other GCMs.C) Projections of minimum temperatureThe change of minimum temperature is very coincident with Tmax, being in general lower than the corresponding forTmaxScenario A2 Scenario B2

Use of an analog method to downscale temperature and precipitation climate change projections over peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/11756/1/EPetisco.pdf

Use of an analog method to downscale temperature and precipitation climate change projections over peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands

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