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以速率为参量的GM(1,1)滑坡时间预报模型研究
Authors
胡华
谢金华
Publication date
15 October 2018
Publisher
Abstract
以摩擦学和灰色系统为理论基础,建立了以速率为参量的滑坡GM(1,1)时间预报模型,推导出滑坡时间预报公式,结合黄茨滑坡、新滩滑坡进行了预报分析,并与传统的以位移为参量的GM(1,1)、Verhulst预报模型预报结果进行对比。结果表明:以速率为参量的GM(1,1)滑坡预报模型能够提前预报滑坡;与传统的以位移为参量的GM(1,1)相比,预报时间更接近滑坡实际发生时间;与传统的以位移为参量的Verhulst模型相比,以速率为参量的GM(1,1)模型不仅能够提前预报滑坡,而且能够更加准确地反映滑坡的位移变化趋势。因此,建议采用以速率为参量的GM(1,1)滑坡时间预报模型对滑坡进行预报分析。国家自然科学基金项目(51278437);;广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2014A030313006);;福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J01224
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Last time updated on 10/06/2020