目的探索竞争风险模型在乳腺癌患者预后预测中的应用,并与传统生存分析结果进行比较。方法运用K-M方法估算总体风险率;采用原因别风险模型进行多因素分析,评价复发和转移的影响因素。结果 K-M方法的风险率高于竞争风险情况下的风险率。肿瘤大小和个人乳腺疾病史是复发的独立预后因素。结论竞争风险模型在乳腺癌患者的预后预测中更合理、更客观。Objective To explore the application of competing risk model in the prognostic prediction study of female breast cancer, and compare it with traditional survival analysis method. Methods K-M method, in the present of competing risk factors, was used to estimate overall risk ratio; cause-specific risk model was used for multiple factor analysis and to evaluate the influence factors of recurrence and metastasis. SPSS16.0, excel 2007 and R2.10.1 were used in the study. Results The risk ratio estimated with K-M method was higher than that with competing risk model. Conclusion The results showed that competing risk model was more rational than the traditional survival analysis method.国家自然科学基金(No.30671822、No.81573257
