Marko, Adamovic

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Conference Paper, Published VersionMarko, AdamovicPossible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I damDresdner Wasserbauliche MitteilungenZur Verfügung gestellt in Kooperation mit/Provided in Cooperation with:Technische Universität Dresden, Institut für Wasserbau und technischeHydromechanikVerfügbar unter/Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/103705Vorgeschlagene Zitierweise/Suggested citation:Marko, Adamovic (2009): Possible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I dam. In:Technische Universität Dresden, Institut für Wasserbau und technische Hydromechanik(Hg.): Wasserkraftnutzung im Zeichen des Klimawandels. Dresdner WasserbaulicheMitteilungen 39. Dresden: Technische Universität Dresden, Institut für Wasserbau undtechnische Hydromechanik. S. 217-225.Standardnutzungsbedingungen/Terms of Use:Die Dokumente in HENRY stehen unter der Creative Commons Lizenz CC BY 4.0, sofern keine abweichendenNutzungsbedingungen getroffen wurden. Damit ist sowohl die kommerzielle Nutzung als auch das Teilen, dieWeiterbearbeitung und Speicherung erlaubt. Das Verwenden und das Bearbeiten stehen unter der Bedingung derNamensnennung. Im Einzelfall kann eine restriktivere Lizenz gelten; dann gelten abweichend von den obigenNutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.Documents in HENRY are made available under the Creative Commons License CC BY 4.0, if no other license isapplicable. Under CC BY 4.0 commercial use and sharing, remixing, transforming, and building upon the materialof the work is permitted. In some cases a different, more restrictive license may apply; if applicable the terms ofthe restrictive license will be binding.Wasserbauko]loquium 2009: Wasserkraft im Zeichen des K]imawandelsDresdener Wasserbauliche Mitteitungen Heft 39Possible impacts of climate change onIron Gate I damAdamovic MarkoThe research was dedicated to foreseeing the possible impacts of climate changeon Iron Gate I Dam. Finished in 1964 on the Iron Gate gorge, on the Danuberiver, as a joint-venture of the RomanianYugoslavian governments, one of thelargest hydro-plants successfully serves today to the both countries.During the research, simulations with the IPCC scenario AlB and hydrologicaltransformations (the method of gradual convergence) were used on calculating theDanube river flow in the near future. Also data collected with LISFLOOD drivenby HIRHAM-HadAM3H/HadCM3 and IPCC scenario A2 ( DanIers and Feyen,2008), contribute considerably to the analysis of impacts of climate change onDanube river basin. Reductions of water availability, hydropower potential,summer tourism and general crop productivity are certainly appearances whichare to be expected in this area as the final outcome.Key words: IPCC scenarios AlB, A2; method of gradual convergence1 IntroductionIron Gate I is the largest dam on the Danube river and one of the largest hydropower plants in Europe. It is located on the Iron Gate gorge, between Romaniaand Serbia, in the south-easter part of Europe. Its annual mean air temperatureis 11'C and annual amount of precipitation about 700 mm. Apart from itsprimary relevance for the European history, economics, politics, demographics,cultural and environmental heritage, the Danube basin is very interesting from aclimatic point of view because it bears at least a twofold direct relevance to theMediterranean region. Firstly, it is the fact that Danube runoff gives a relevantcontribution of freshwater flux into the Mediterranean sea, and secondly, itdepends mostly on precipitated water of Mediterranean origin, because of thegeographical position and the complex orography of the basin (Speranza, 2002).The Danube basin is in the eastern section of the considered RCM (Regionalclimate model).The Danube catchment encompasses continental climate, as it is land-dominatedby advection from the surrounding land areas. This part of Danube catchment isgreatly affected by the Mediterranean climate on the one hand, as it is mentioned217218 Possible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I damabove. On the other, the Dinaric-Balkan mountain chains in the west and theCarpathian mountain bow in the dorth and east, present distinctivemorphological and climatic regions and barriers. These mountain chains receivethe highest annual precipitation (1000-3200 mm per year), while the outer basin,such as Pannonian basin and the lowlands, are very dry050-600 mm per year).The paper is structured as follows. In section 2, basic information about theDanube basin, tile data considered in this study and the concepts behind thediagnostics tools employed in the auditing are presented. In sections 3 and 4,there will be presented and discussed the main results on the intercomparisonand verification of the models, respectively regarding the yearly climatology ofthe precipitation, evaporation, water balance and runoff. In section 5 there willbe drawn conclusions.2 Data and methods2.1 Notes on the Danube River BasinThe location of the study area of Danube river basin considered by certainmodel and scenarios are shown in Figure 1.45.8N-45.6H-46.4N:45.2N·48N·44.aN·446N·44.AN-44.2N-4<N-43.8N-43.6N·Figure 1 Smdy area dejined by the regional climate model (blue points are taken into consi-deration)000.20:11 20:4E 20:71 ZiE 21.3E 21 213E 22'2E 22:SE 22:BE ·Wasswbaukolloquium 2009: Wasserkraft im Zeichen des KlimawandelsDresdenerWasserbautiche Mitteilungen Heft 39Prior to the assessment of changes of water resources of the Danube river andtheir impacts on Iron Gate I dam, including the climate change effects, there wasdetermined the terrain's spatial regionalization. Having been aware of theclimatic-hydrologic and hydrographic homogeneity of regions, the wholeterritory of Serbia was divided into 20 units basins. The part of Danube basin inits easter part, was subject of the research. For this balance unit, the maincomponents of the balance equation of the water that included into thecalculation are: precipitation P (mm), flow Q (m /s), runoff depth h (mm), eva-poration E (mm) and annual air temperature T (° C). All these components weretaken into the calculation for the two time frames of analyses: 1961-1990 and2071-2100 as the mean annual values, including monthly precipitation values. Inorder to foresee the effects and impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I dam,certain correlation relationships were established according to tile data from1961-1990. Afterwards, it is assumed that those relationships will continue towork and be useful also for the next century, although some changes of theclimatic elements (precipitation and temperature) are bound to happen. On thebasis of the assessment of climate units in the XXI century and with help of theestablished relationsbips, the water flow of Danube river and runoff depth weredefined for this century.2.2 Data SetsThe following data sources, relative to the 1961-1990 time frame have beenused for the purposes of this analysis:1. Annual values of Temperature (1), Precipitation (P), Evaporation (E)from Regional Climate Model taken within the boundaries · of thehydrologic homogeneous unit basin in Serbia.2. Daily discharge of the Danube river at the near-sea Ceatal Izmail stationobtained in order to get clearer picture about climate changes till the endof this century.2.3 Notes on the Theoretical FrameworkBy imposing mass conservation for water, extrapolation of the hydrologicalparameters of the water balance equation was done in the following steps. First,using the data from the 1961-1990 of the AlB scenario, for the homogeneousregion, relationships were established between runoff depth h, total precipitationand evaporation (by evaporation it is meant the total evaporation, thus includingtranspiration).219220 Possible impacts of climate change on hon Gate I damThe jii·st between: runoff depth-h total precipitation-P h=P-m. E evaporation-Ethat is: h=e· Pwith the parameters: 0=hPcoefficient of the runoff depth reduction -m=1The second one between: evaporation-E precipitation-P E=a+b· P +c·T air temperature-TFor the requirements of the extrapolation in the period of the 2071-2100, thedata as are precipitation P2071-ziw and air temperature 1071-21°0 were used, andimplemented in the next equation in order to get conditional evaporation for thesame period. 2071-2100 = a  b · 1 2071-2100  C . T 2071-2100The first approximation of the runoff depth for the 2071. is shown in the nextequation:h2071 =e. p2071The reduction coefficient:2071 -2071 . 2071m -r -nIf this condition is not fulfilled, the correction of the conditional h2071, i. e. 84071is performed by the method of the gradual convergence (approximation) untilsuch values are obtained which must satisfy the balance equation:h2071 = p2071 - E20713 ResultsThe considered data sets are analyzed in terms of their representation of thehydrological balance over the Danube basin in its easter part where the IronGate is located, by focusing on the long-term mean, on the interannualWasserbaukolloguium 2009: Wasserkraft im Zeichen des KlimawindelsDresdener Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen Heft 39variability. For this impact model, by suitable averaging over the calendar years,the yearly time series of the accumulated basin integrated fields (P, T, E) weredefined as the outset. The results show that in the last quarter of this century wecan expect the deficit in all those fields mentioned above and, as its worstconsequence, the decrease of the Danube river flow in this area. Thehydrographs for each time frame (1961-1990 and 2071-2010) according to thescenario A12 and the correlations between them are shown in following figures(Figure 2,3,4).The analysis of the simulations driven by the HIRHAM-HadAM3H/HadCM3 and IPCC scenario A2 (Dankers and Feyen, 2008) at theCeatal Izmail station, also show that the Danube river flow and its hydrologicalcatchment balance will face a lot of changes (Figure 5).01955 1 60 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990-5. Period Bearsl7-61 5i :f 2Figure 2. Danube Discharge Hydrograph according totheAlBscenario (19614990)-19 10 15 20 25 30Period WearslFigure 3. Danube Discharge Hydrograph according tothe AlBscenario (2071-2100)22120-2 15AB 10- 51995135222 Possible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I dam120000'1.3 8000.M400010 15 20 25Period Bears]-m71-2100- 19614990Figure4. Cross-correlation Hydrograph ofthe DanubedischargeWIN SPR SUM AUT WINFigure 5 Change in daily average river fiow betwee,12071-2100 (blue line) and 1961-1990(black line). Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM - HadAM3H/HadCM3 and IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Dankers and Feyen, 2008).4 DiscussionsAccording to all these results, by analyzing and calculating the Danube riverflow in the near future, we will face many changes that will have a greatconsequence to the Iron Gate I dam, accumulation and its ecosystems. Duringthe summer and autumn there will be much less water in the river bed.Furthermore, if we take into account predictions made by IPCC which say thatthe south-east Europe will face temperature growth of 0.2 degrees in the nexttwo decades for the range of SRES scenarios, it makes the whole problem muchmore complicated and alarming.20-15-0i 10*3 550- .0 5 30 35-5 'Dan be (Ceatal l rnail)Wasserbaukolioquium 2009: Wasserkraft im Zeichen des KlimawandelsDresdener Wasserbautiche Mitteilungen Heft 39Precipitations peak in the early summer months and in November, which givesmore often a secondary maximum, is the typical feature of the observedclimatalogy of the precipitation of the Danubian region. The minima ofprecipitation are also clustered in two periods of the year, namely February andthe summer months. The latter minimum is a signature of the influence of thetypical Mediterranean summer (Figure 6.).120100 i..... IC·, 1, iti /'dr.# /-\1 A \0 V A\--/ / r ic \ 1J"L- .4': . AWL*\J ALY.4..,tf----. ·51* 41/,NK.\S -2'>g:-2&7 /:f%20 -/'5.222=. /ZKA+Gs/Atot,XE/gs#lpit'j,4--%   /7:  -:- Jv 0246 8 10Period [monthslFigure 6. Monthly long4erm accumulated precip-Wation overthe studyareaofthe Danube catchrnent- ---196119631£66- ---197219741975--19761977198319851987..1990As a result of all that, as has been mentioned above, this part of Europe will facewith worse conditions (high temperatures, droughts) in a region alreadyvulnerable to climate variability, than those of 2003 when Europe was hit by anincredible heat wave. But the story does not end here. Reductions of wateravailability, hydropower potential, summer tourism and general cropproductivity are certainly appearances which we can expect in this area with astress on the following problems: Reduced flow which will have consequent decreases in power generation; Lower Danube flow which reduces water supply, water quality andrecreation activities in the upstream part of the river; Lower water tables will cause some shallow wells to go dry up; Warmer river temperatures will have an effect on cold-water species, suchas trout, and directly will affect biodiversity; and Increased demand for irrigation and a change in crop types due to a longergrowing season.223200180 -,/160 -f" 140 - ,,E ti/7/10 12 14224 Possible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I dam5 ConclusionsThis paper has intercompared and verified certain RCM in its representation ofthehydrological balance over the Danube river basin along Iron Gate gorge, forthe time frame 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 according to the IPCC SRES scenarioAlB. For matters of completeness, it has also considered tile outputs of theHIRHAM - HadAM3H/ HadCM3 and IPCC SRES scenario A2. The Danubehas been chosen as a case study because of its multiple relevance for socio-economical, as well as environmental and climatic level. This part of the Danuberiver basin has a direct relevance to the Mediterranean region, since it provides arelevant input of freshwater to the sea, as well as being fuelled mostly byprecipitations due to the water of Mediterranean origin. The hydrologicalbalance has been computed in two different, but in principle equivalent ways.The first approach, which has a more hydrological nuance, relies on establishingrelationships between annual averages of the hydrological balance parameters(E, P, 1) in order to get relevant coefficients. The second approach, which ismore typically meteorological, relies on the calculation of the E for the timeframe 2071-2100 by using the previous coefficients and getting runoff depth (11)and discharge (Q) as the final outputs.The results are very troublesome since according to these simulation thedischarge in this part of the Danube basin will decrease over 50 % with a greatconsequences to tile Iron Gate I dam and its accumulation.So on, when talking about climate change, a question always arise: Should weadapt to the climate change, or should we mitigate it? Maybe tile answer is inmitigation while doing adaptation. According to the Danube River and the damIron Gate I, the works for fighting reservoir related bank erosion in order topreserve the dam and accumulation have already been started. Also protection ofthe natural resources and the ecosystem, which urged the performance actions ofrestoration of nature and reintegration of temporarily occupied lands andlandscape improvement (like maintenance of verdure spots), started to happen.Pushing and raising tile problem of climate change to the surface, what shouldbe reality and the global prime issue, is a way to get community involved inorder to preserve its existence.Acknowledgments. I wish to thank S. Prohaska for the generous help inhydrological calculations and V. Djurdjevic for providing me with the necessarymodeling data inputs.Wasserbaukolloquium 2009: Wasserkraft im Zeichen des Klimawandels 225Dresdener Wasserbauliche Mitteitungen Heft 39ReferencesBrunetti, M., M. Maugeri, T. Nanni, I. Auer, R. B6hm, and W. Sch6ner,(2006): Precipitation variability and changes in the greater Alpineregion over the 1800-2003 period, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D11107,doi:10.1029/2005JD006674Dankers, R., and L. Feyen, (2008): Climate change impact on flood hazard inEurope: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations, J.Geophys. Res., 113, D19105, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009719Filipovic B., Krunic 0., Lazic M., (2005), Regionalna Hidrogeologija Srbije,Faculty of Mining and Geology, Belgrade, pp. 14-17Lucarini V., R. Danihlik, I. Kriegerova, and A. Speranza, (2007): Does theDanube exist? Versions of reality given by various regional climatemodels and climatological datasets, Journal of Geophysical Research,112, D13103, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008360Prohaska S., Ristic V., (2002): Hidrologija kroz teoriju i praksu, Faculty ofMining and Geology, Belgrade, pp. 157-161Speranza A., (2002): The hydrological cycle of the Mediterranean Basin,Proceedings of the Interreg IIC Conference Drought-Monitoring,Mitigation, Effects, Villasimius (Cagliari), 21-23 September 2000, EdsG. Monacelli and E. Giusta., pp. 103-106.Author:Undergraduate student, Mr. Adamovic MarkoDepartment of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Mining and Geology,University of Belgrade,Bulevar Zorana Djindjica 127, Belgrade, Serbia+381-64-614-85-39damdamrgf@yahoo.com-,Il-.I......IKUBENS Ingenieurgesellschaft mbHBeratende Ingenieure Leipzig, Numberg, ErfurtBMEL--*Aula/Ihr kompetenter Partner fur komplette Leistungen:- konstruktiver Wasser- und Ingenieurbau- Hoch- und Tiefbau- Betoninstandsetzung- Spezialtiefbau- Tragwerksplanung ..- Stahlwasserbau 'Ji, U . P'.S-4 "- Bauuberwachung .4*1*- Bauoberleitung- Koordination Sicherheits-und Gesundheitsschutz- Hochwasserschutz- Projektsteuerung/1-*ip*---4 P P.mt'P./.Firmensitz Leipzig Zweigniederlassung NOmberg Zweigniederlassung ErfurtBeethovenstraEe 14 Rothenburger StraGe 241 BebelstraGe 1904107 Leipzig 90439 NOmberg 99086 ErfurtTel.: 0341 / 98497-70 Tel.: 0911 / 96593-0 Tel.: 0361 / 21139-66Internet http://www.kubens-ingenieure.de E-mail: mail@kubens-ingenieure.de

Possible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I dam

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Possible impacts of climate change on Iron Gate I dam

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