We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This
model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered)
and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to
describe various scenarios of epidemic spreading. As compared to the basic SIR
model, our model takes into account two possible routes of contagion
transmission: direct from the infected compartment to the susceptible
compartment and indirect via some intermediate medium or fomites. Transmission
rates are estimated in terms of average distances between the individuals in
selected social environments and characteristic time spans for which the
individuals stay in each of these environments. We also introduce a collective
economic resource associated with the average amount of money or income per
individual to describe the socioeconomic interplay between the spreading
process and the resource available to infected individuals. The
epidemic-resource coupling is supposed to be of activation type, with the
recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law. Our model brings an advantage
of building various control strategies to mitigate the effect of epidemic and
can be applied, in particular, to modeling the spread of COVID-19.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 5 table