传统的金融抑制和金融深化理论主张取消利率管制,因为利率上升可以增加储蓄、改善资金配置、提高经济效率,但是不同经济体的实际改革经验却有好有坏。本文通过构建分割金融市场下存在利率管制和信贷干预的代际交叠一般均衡模型,从政府信贷干预的角度对这一现象进行了解释。研究发现,综合考虑利率管制和信贷干预的利率市场化能够提升经济效率,但在不改革信贷干预情形下,取消利率管制反而会降低经济效率,因此考虑利率市场化改革时应优先改革信贷干预,或两者同步进行。我们通过数据检验发现,对信贷干预的改革能显著提高经济整体的全要素生产率,而保持信贷干预仅取消价格管制的改革会显著降低全要素生产率。这一结果稳健存在,并且和本文模型推论一致。Traditional financial repression theory advocated the abolition of interest rate controls, be- cause rising interest rates can increase savings, improve capital allocation and economic efficiency, but in- terest rate liberalization reform in different countries has led to different results. We try to provide a possi- ble explanation from discriminatory credit rationing caused by government intervention. Based on an over- lapping generation general equilibrium model incorporated with interest rate controls, credit intervention and segmented financial markets, we found that, interest rate liberalization can improve economic efficiency, but only if reform on credit intervention is set before abolition of interest rate controls. Removing interest rate ceilings in the presence of credit intervention will reduce economic efficiency. The empirical evidence also supports our theoretical findings, that is, reform on credit intervention significantly improves a country＇s TFP growth, while removing interest rate ceilings significantly reduces TFP growth.作者感谢徐建炜、张勇、赵波、徐建国、苏丹、李想、林念、王戴黎、谢沛初、苟琴、黄志刚、彭俞超、曾广等在论文修改中提供的帮助和建议,感谢匿名审稿人的意见和建议.当然,文责自负
