前工业社会,人们主要依靠陆路和水路进行商品货物的运输、贸易。由于水路运输的成本比陆路运输的低且运输量大,因此,通过自然河流、运河进行货物转运对于商人来说是最明智的选择。本文以宋朝(960-1279年)的海外贸易为例,考察了12、13世纪水路运输对中国海外贸易的影响。利用《中国历代天灾人祸表》中宋朝发生的自然灾害数据这一外生变量,以及《宋代海外贸易》中所记录的市舶司(贸易管理机构)贸易收入额,识别出宋朝海外贸易的发展依赖于便利发达的水路运输系统,水网分布越密集、水路运输条件越好,对海外贸易收入的影响越大,验证了水路运输对中国海外贸易的重要作用。Before the industrial society, commodity trading mainly depended on road and waterway transportation. With lower costs and larger volumes,it is the most sensible choice to make commodity transactions through rivers and canals. This paper takes the oversea trade of Song Dynasty as an example,and investigates the effect of waterway transportation on the trade of China in 12 and 13 Century. In this paper,we use an exogenous variable- natural disaster in Song Dynasty and the oversea trade income in Song Dynasty,and we identify that the development of oversea trade depends on the convenience developed water transportation system,and then verify that the better waterway transportation conditions are,the higher the oversea trade income is. In this way,the importance of waterway transportation to China's oversea trade is demonstrated.国家自然科学基金项目“基于大样本历史数据的制度演变与长期经济增长问题研究:以传统中国选官制度为例”(项目编号:71173161);; 教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“发展中国家人力资源后发优势与经济追赶研究”(项目编号:08JJD790141)的资
