本文在城乡二元经济特征背景下,按照财政支出的消费效应和生产效应,将我国财政支出分为政府城镇和农村的生产性财政支出、消费性财政支出,通过构建动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型分析了多种外生冲击对总产出的影响。结果发现:短期内,政府城镇(农村)生产性支出的增加对总产出的正向作用比政府城镇(农村)消费性支出的增加更为明显,但长期内效果相反。当进一步分析政府财政支出冲击对城乡居民消费的影响,以及城乡厂商所得税税率波动对城乡居民就业的影响时发现:(1)政府城镇(农村)消费性支出的增加对城镇(农村)居民消费的影响在短期内表现为挤出效应,在长期表现为挤入效应;政府城镇(农村)生产性支出的增加对城镇(农村)居民消费的影响在短期内表现为挤入效应,但长期效果并不明显。(2)相对于农村厂商所得税税率的提高,城镇厂商所得税税率的提高对我国经济增长和城乡居民就业的负面影响更明显。Based on the background of urban-rural dual economic,and in accordance with the consumption effects and production effects of fiscal expenditure,this paper divides fiscal expenditure into consumption expenditure and production expenditure of urban-rural areas by incorporating them into consumption and production function respectively under the framework of a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.By analyzing the impulse responses of exogenous shocks on output,we find that,compared with consumption expenditure,production expenditure promotes more growth of economy in the short term,and in the long term,the effect is the opposite.When analyzing the effects of fiscal expenditure shocks on urban-rural consumption,and the fluctuation of income tax rate on employment of urban-rural residents,the paper comes to the following conclusions:(1)consumption expenditure has crowd-out effect on consumption in the short term,but in the long term it has crowd-in effect.On the other hand,production expenditure has crowd-in effect on consumption in the short term,but has no long term effect;(2)compared with the tax rate of rural industries,the increase in the tax rate of urban industries brings greater negative effects on the growth of economy and employment
