目的探讨adaptive LASSO; logistic回归模型在老年人养老意愿影响因素研究中的应用。方法基于厦门市60岁及以上老年人口的多阶段整群抽样调查数据,建立老年人养老意愿影响; 因素的adaptive LASSO; logistic回归模型,通过交叉验证法选择模型中的调和参数lambda;通过与全变量和逐步logistic回归结果的比较,探讨adaptive; LASSO; logistic回归模型的优势。结果共纳入1244名老年人,其养老意愿为家庭养老、社区居家养老和机构养老的比例分别为70.0%、21.1%和8.; 9%。交叉验证法选择的lambda为0.018;此时adaptive LASSO; logistic回归模型纳入的自变量为居住地、年龄、婚姻状况、文化程度、子女数、每月退休金收入、公费医疗和住院情况;; BIC和AIC分别为1931、1888,均低于全变量logistic回归(2077、1923)和逐步logistic回归(2025、1912); 。结论adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型可用于老年人养老意愿影响因素研究。老年人的养老意愿受多个因素影响。Objective This study was aimed to analyze influencing factors on elders; preference for supporting in case to provide evidence for diversified; elderly supporting. Methods This article applied an adaptive LASSO; logistic model to the multi-stage cluster sampling data of the; population aged 60 or older in Xiamen to analyze influencing factors on; elders preference for supporting. Cross validation method was used to; choose lambda for adaptive LASSO logistic model. In addition,we; evaluated the model fitting of adaptive LASSO logistic model by; comparing the BIC and AIC with full logistic model and stepwise logistic; model. Results The cross validation method resulted in lambda = 0.018; for adaptive LASSO logistic model, in which variables retained were; residence, age,marital status, education level,number of children, the; monthly pension income,medical insurance and hospitalization. BIC of; adaptive LASSO logistic model,full logistic model and stepwise logistic; model were 1931, 2077and 2025 respectively. And AIC of the three models; were 1888, 1923 and 1912 respectively. Conclusion Compared to full; logistic model and stepwise logistic model, adaptive LASSO logistic; model was the best fitting model for influencing factors on elders; preference for supporting. Adaptive LASSO logistic model could be used; to analyze influencing factors on elders preference for supporting.; There were multiple factors which influenced elders preference for; supporting.厦门大学大学生创新创业训练计划项
