The Research on Measurement of Bubble and Spatial Infection of Regional Real Estate Price in China——Empirical Analysis Based on 35 Metropolises from 2001 to 2005
本文以我国城市房地产价格泡沫为研究对象,利用2001~2005年全国35个大中城市的面板数据对各城市房地产价格泡沫大小进行测算以及对区域间房价泡沫的传染性进行研究。在适应性预期的框架下对各大中城市的房价泡沫测算的结果显示,城市房价泡沫大小与房价的高低并不存在必然联系。另外,利用CD检验统计量对各区域城市间的房价泡沫的相关性进行检验认为,房价泡沫在区域间以及区域内城市之间存在传染,东部地区城市间传染性最强,而西部地区城市与北部地区城市之间的传染性不显著;同时,本文也对各地区城市间房价泡沫的传染态势进行了分析。This paper estimates the bubble of real estate price of 35 metropolises, and makes research on infection of multiregional real estate bubble based on the panel data of 35 metropolises from 2001 to 2005. In the framework of adaptable expectation, it concludes that the bubble size and the level of prices maintains consistency. Additionally, tests to the relevance of price bubble among intraregional or interregional cities, using CD test statistic, indicate that infection is significant between eastern cities, while it is not between western and northern cities. Meanwhile, this paper also analyzes the inter-city price bubble.国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:70573086);; 教育部文科重点研究基地重大研究项目(项目编号:05JJD790094)的支
