An Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of High M2/GDP in China

Abstract

通过建立多元线性回归模型对我国M2/GDP过高的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明,金融市场不完善、总储蓄率高居不下、广义货币流通速度急剧下降以及国家债务负担沉重是我国M2/GDP畸高的主要原因。应从加快金融市场的改革与监管、鼓励金融创新、发展资本市场、维持适度的债务规模以及鼓励公众使用其他投资方式等方面遏制M2/GDP过高所带来的风险。Through establishing multi linear regression model,this thesis makes empirical analysis on the influencing factors of high M2/GDP in China.Empirical evidences reveal that the main causes of unusual high M2/GDP in China are: undeveloped financial market,high deposit ratio,low velocity of circulation of broad money and heavy national debt.To limit the risk of too high M2/GDP,effects should be made in several aspects: speed up reform and supervision of financial market,encourage financial innovation,develop capital market,keep moderate debt level,and encourage publics to use other ways of investment etc

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