The Nonaxisymmetric Behaviour Of Solar Eruptive Events

Abstract

This thesis investigates new approaches for predicting the occurrence of solar eruptive events based on coronal mass ejection (CME), solar flare and sunspot group observations. The scope of the present work is to study the spatio-temporal properties of the above-mentioned solar features. The analysis may also provide a deeper understanding of the subject of solar magnetic field reorganisation. Furthermore, the applied approaches may open opportunities for connecting these local phenomena with the global physical processes that generate the magnetic field of the Sun, called the solar dynamo. The investigation utilises large solar flare statistical populations and advanced computational tools, such as clustering techniques, wavelet analysis, autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) forecast, kernel density estimations (KDEs) and so on. This work does not attempt to make actual predictions because it is out of the scope of the recent investigation. However, the thesis introduces new possible approaches in the subject of flare and CME forecasting. The future aim is to construct a real-time database with the ability to forecast eruptive events based on the findings of this thesis. This potential forecasting model may be crucial for protecting a wide range of satellite systems around the Earth or predicting space weather based on the obtained results may also assist to plan safe space exploration