Reliability assessment based on an adaptive response surface method considering correlation among random variables

Abstract

Although the Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique can evaluate a reliability of most structural systems, its processing time equals, approximately, the reciprocal of the probability of failure. While the Stochastic Finite Element (SFE) method could help to solve such a drawback, it is limited to specific computer programs, in which the mean and the coefficient of random variables are estimated by a perturbation, or by a weighted integral method. Therefore, SFE may not be easily applicable when using commercial software or systems that are not prepared with the prerequisite programming. To overcome these limitations, the RSM can be applied, because its accuracy depends on both the distance of axial points, and the linearity of the Limit State Functions (LSFs). The correlation among random variables and the response of a system is evaluated by composing a Bayesian belief nets (BBN). Consequently, the proposed Linear Adaptive Weighted Response Surface Method (LAW-RSM) with BBN modeling produces improved converged reliability indices than conventional RSMs and detail observation for the uncertainties in structural components

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