Modelling the spread of Covid19 in Italy using a revised version of the SIR model

Abstract

In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a certain time, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ exponentially decays in time, as empirically suggested by world data. Using this model, we were able to reproduce the real behavior of the epidemic with an average error of 5\%. Moreover, we illustrate possible future scenarios, associated to different intervals of $R_0$. This model has been used since the beginning of March 2020, predicting the Italian peak of the epidemic in April 2020 with about 100.000 detected active cases. The real peak of the epidemic happened on the 20th of April 2020, with 108.000 active cases. This result shows that the model had predictive power for the italian case.Comment: The model presented in this paper has been adopted on Covstat.it. Errata corrige in the abstrac