The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data

Abstract

The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project relies on country experts who code a host of ordinal variables, providing subjective ratings of latent- that is, not directly observable- regime characteristics over time. Sets of around five experts rate each case (country-year observation), and each of these raters works independently. Since raters may diverge in their coding because of either differences of opinion or mistakes, we require systematic tools with which to model these patterns of disagreement. These tools allow us to aggregate ratings into point estimates of latent concepts and quantify our uncertainty around these point estimates. In this paper we describe item response theory models that can that account and adjust for differential item functioning (i.e. differences in how experts apply ordinal scales to cases) and variation in rater reliability (i.e. random error). We also discuss key challenges specific to applying item response theory to expert-coded cross-national panel data, explain the approaches that we use to address these challenges, highlight potential problems with our current framework, and describe long-term plans for improving our models and estimates. Finally, we provide an overview of the different forms in which we present model output.This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (SES-1423944, PI: Daniel Pemstein), Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant M13-0559:1, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg), the Swedish Research Council (2013.0166, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg and Jan Teorell), the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (PI: Staffan I. Lindberg), and the University of Gothenburg (E 2013/43); as well as internal grants from the Vice-Chancellor’s office, the Dean of the College of Social Sciences, and the Department of Political Science at University of Gothenburg. Marquardt acknowledges research support from the Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100.’ We performed simulations and other computational tasks using resources provided by the Notre Dame Center for Research Computing (CRC) through the High Performance Computing section and the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputer Centre in Sweden (SNIC 2016/1-382, SNIC 2017/1-406 and 2017/1-68). We specifically acknowledge the assistance of In-Saeng Suh at CRC and Johan Raber and Peter Mu ̈nger at SNIC in facilitating our use of their respective systems

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