The burgeoning plant-based meat industry has demonstrated the potential for plant-based
meat to provide a comparable consumer experience to animal meat with a significantly
reduced environmental impact. This study explores the land-use implications of plant-based
meat production under various adoption scenarios and ingredient mixtures.
A system-level model quantifies land that is both offset from beef and pork production and
land that is potentially additive from ingredients grown in regions outside traditional animal
agriculture supply chains. Coconut oil is explored as a potential high-risk ingredient due to it
contributing additive land-use and being grown in sensitive biomes. GIS software was used
to contextualize land-use requirements for the oil by comparing projections to existing
suitable agricultural land in top producing countries and current production land area.
Finally, a qualitative case study of potential risks and opportunities associated with relying
on the oil was conducted to inform sourcing and ingredient panel strategies. There are
several key takeaways from the analyses conducted:
1. Due to its much larger land-use footprint, plant-based displacement of beef
products drive proportionally higher land-use benefits than that of pork.
2. Over 20 years, roughly 25% rate of animal-based meat displacement in the US will
stabilize land-use associated with overall meat production in the country.
3. Under high market adoption, plant-based meat will require almost two million
square hectares of land for coconut oil production in 20 years, or 55% of land
currently used for coconut cultivation in the Philippines.
These findings signal that plant-based meat has significant land-use implications which can
be realized under reasonably high adoption and over the long run. The industry would
benefit from diversifying ingredients which represent additive land-use and potential supply
chain risks. The research presented serves as a “living” model and foundation for future
investigation into other ingredients used in plant-based meat products.Master of ScienceSchool for Environment and SustainabilityUniversity of Michiganhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154861/1/358_TransformingProtein_FinalDoc.pd
