Estimating Knots and Their Association in Parallel Bilinear Spline Growth Curve Models in the Framework of Individual Measurement Occasions

Abstract

Latent growth curve models with spline functions are flexible and accessible statistical tools for investigating nonlinear change patterns that exhibit distinct phases of development in manifested variables. Among such models, the bilinear spline growth model (BLSGM) is the most straightforward and intuitive but useful. An existing study has demonstrated that the BLSGM allows the knot (or change-point), at which two linear segments join together, to be an additional growth factor other than the intercept and slopes so that researchers can estimate the knot and its variability in the framework of individual measurement occasions. However, developmental processes usually unfold in a joint development where two or more outcomes and their change patterns are correlated over time. As an extension of the existing BLSGM with an unknown knot, this study considers a parallel BLSGM (PBLSGM) for investigating multiple nonlinear growth processes and estimating the knot with its variability of each process as well as the knot-knot association in the framework of individual measurement occasions. We present the proposed model by simulation studies and a real-world data analysis. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed PBLSGM generally estimate the parameters of interest unbiasedly, precisely and exhibit appropriate confidence interval coverage. An empirical example using longitudinal reading scores, mathematics scores, and science scores shows that the model can estimate the knot with its variance for each growth curve and the covariance between two knots. We also provide the corresponding code for the proposed model.Comment: \c{opyright} 2020, American Psychological Association. This paper is not the copy of record and may not exactly replicate the final, authoritative version of the article. Please do not copy or cite without authors' permission. The final article will be available, upon publication, via its DOI: 10.1037/met000030