This thesis explores the utility of computational intelligent techniques and aims to contribute to the growing literature of hybrid neural networks and genetic programming applications in financial forecasting. The theoretical background and the description of the forecasting techniques are given in the first part of the thesis (chapters 1-3), while the contribution is provided through the last five self-contained chapters (chapters 4-8).
Chapter 4 investigates the utility of the Psi Sigma neural network when applied to the task of forecasting and trading the Euro/Dollar exchange rate, while Kalman Filter estimation is tested in combining neural network forecasts. A time-varying leverage trading strategy based on volatility forecasts is also introduced. In chapter 5 three neural networks are used to forecast an exchange rate, while Kalman Filter, Genetic Programming and Support Vector Regression are implemented to provide stochastic and genetic forecast combinations. In addition, a hybrid leverage trading strategy tests if volatility forecasts and market shocks can be combined to boost the trading performance of the models. Chapter 6 presents a hybrid Genetic Algorithm – Support Vector Regression model for optimal parameter selection and feature subset combination. The model is applied to the task of forecasting and trading three euro exchange rates. The results of these chapters suggest that the stochastic and genetic neural network forecast combinations present superior forecasts and high profitability. In that way, more light is shed in the demanding issue of achieving statistical and trading efficiency in the foreign exchange markets.
The focus of the next two chapters shifts from exchange rate forecasting to inflation and unemployment prediction through optimal macroeconomic variable selection. Chapter 7 focuses on forecasting the US inflation and unemployment, while chapter 8 presents the Rolling Genetic – Support Vector Regression model. The latter is applied to several forecasting exercises of inflation and unemployment of EMU members. Both chapters provide information on which set of macroeconomic indicators is found relevant to inflation and unemployment targeting on a monthly basis. The proposed models statistically outperform traditional ones. Hence, the voluminous literature, suggesting that non-linear time-varying approaches are more efficient and realistic in similar applications, is extended. From a technical point of view, these algorithms are superior to non-adaptive algorithms; avoid time consuming optimization approaches and efficiently cope with dimensionality and data-snooping issues
