Predicting outcome in Crohn’s disease

Abstract

Crohn’s disease is a chronic immune-mediated disease which can cause inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract anywhere between mouth and anus. It is now understood to be the result of a complex interplay between genetic, microbial and environmental factors. The detail of these interactions remains an important focus of research. Clinicians and patients are faced with an increasing range of therapeutic options for Crohn’s. Key decision points include first presentation to gastrointestinal services, assessment of risk of disease progression, escalation to biologic therapy, and withdrawal of immunomodulator or biologic therapies. Biomarkers are needed that help stratify patients at these times to facilitate shared decision-making. In this thesis, I have brought together seven of the first-author papers published from the work conducted during my period of study. I first investigated the associations between NOD2, the strongest genetic association for Crohn’s disease, and the faecal microbiome. NOD2 encodes a bacterial pattern recognition receptor, and so disease-associated genetic variants might be expected to lead to an alteration in the microbiota. Although I demonstrated clear associations between the presence of inactive Crohn’s and changes in the faecal microbial composition, I was unable to show an impact of NOD2 genotype in either patients with Crohn’s or in volunteers without gastrointestinal disease. Calprotectin is the dominant protein in the cytosol of neutrophils. Its measurement in faecal samples has become well-established as a tool for non-invasive assessment of intestinal inflammation. I have investigated its use here for both diagnosis and prognosis in Crohn’s disease. In the diagnosis paper, I have assessed the diagnostic accuracy in of faecal calprotectin in a large cohort of patients referred to secondary care with lower gastrointestinal symptoms. I demonstrated a high negative predictive value, with very few false negatives even after three years of follow-up. In patients with established Crohn’s disease, I have then gone onto show that higher concentrations of faecal calprotectin, independent of symptoms, are associated with a greater risk of progressing to stricturing or penetrating disease, hospitalisation or resectional surgery. All of the therapies used in Crohn’s disease carry long-term risks including an elevated risk of infection and certain cancers. For this reason, among others, clinicians and patients must regularly assess the risk-benefit of continued therapy versus withdrawal of medication. I conducted two national, multicentre studies to better understand the outcomes of treatment withdrawal; one for thiopurines, and the other for anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF), two of the most widely used classes of maintenance medication for Crohn’s disease. I demonstrated a relapse rate of 39% at two years following withdrawal of thiopurines for Crohn’s disease, and for 56% two years following anti-TNF withdrawal. I identified factors predictive of an increased risk of relapse, and for anti-TNF performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all of the available published data. Anti-TNF therapies were the first targeted biologic therapy licensed for Crohn’s disease and they remain an important tool for the induction and maintenance of remission. Their introduction has been transformative for many patients, but secondary loss of response is common. In the final paper included in this thesis, I present the results from PANTS, a 120- site study of infliximab and adalimumab in 1,610 patients with Crohn’s disease. I have demonstrated the importance of good early drug concentrations for outcome, and explored the relationship between patient factors, drug and anti-drug antibody concentrations and longer term outcomes. As part of the PANTS study, we have collected longitudinal biological samples, and building on the clinical data presented in this thesis, I have described some of the early downstream analyses of genetic associations with anti-drug antibody formation, as well as plans for analyses of DNA methylation, transcription, serum protein concentrations, immunoglobulin G glycosylation and variation in the microbiome. This thesis brings together work spanning a breadth of translational and clinical research into Crohn’s disease. I have contributed to better understanding of pathogenesis, and to prediction of outcome at key decision points within the clinical disease course. These projects, particularly the PANTS study, provide a strong foundation for further research to better understand this important disease

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