Bhulai, S. (Sandjai)

Legemaate, G.A.G. (Guido)

Mei, R.D. (Rob) van der

English

Every day, when firefighters respond to emergencies,

they and the public face an unnecessary risk due to inadequate

staffing. Having too many people stand-by costs a lot of money,

on the other hand, having too few people stand-by leads to

unnecessary safety risks. Therefore, for adequate staffing pur-

poses, forecasting the number of incidents that each fire station

has to handle is a very relevant question. In this paper, we

develop models to create a good forecast for the number of

incidents that each fire station in Amsterdam-Amstelland has

to handle. Previous studies mainly focused on multiplicative

models containing correction factors for the weekday and the

time of the year. Our main contribution is to incorporate the

influence of different weather conditions in the categories of wind,

temperature, rain, and visibility. We show that an ensemble model

has the best predictive performance. Rain and wind typically have

a strong linear influence, while temperature mainly has a nonlinear influence

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Applied urban fire department incident forecasting

https://ir.cwi.nl/pub/29367/Applied_urban_fire_department_incident_forecasting.pdf

Applied urban fire department incident forecasting

Abstract

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