Ciurean, R.

Herv&#225

Jaedicke, C.

Kalsnes, B.

Nadim, F.

Smith, J. T.

Tofani, Veronica

Van Den Eeckhaut, M.

Winter, M. G.

English

Florence Research

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 13, EGU2011-10398, 2011EGU General Assembly 2011© Author(s) 2011Identification of landslide hazard and risk "hotspots" in EuropeChristian Jaedicke (1), Miet Van Den Eeckhaut (2), Farrokh Nadim (1), Javier Hervás (2), Bjørn Kalsnes (1),Jessica T. Smith (3), Veronica Tofani (4), Roxana Ciurean (5), and Mike G. Winter (3)(1) Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Natural Hazards, Oslo, Norway (cj@ngi.no), (2) Institute for Environment andSustainability, EC Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy, (3) TRL Limited, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (4) University ofFlorence, Florence Italy, (5) Geological Institute of Romania, Bucharest, RomaniaLandslide hazard and risk in Europe are in focus usually just after a recent catastrophe such as the widespreadflooding and landsliding in Switzerland and Austria in summer 2005, Messina (Italy) in autumn 2009, or theevents in Madeira in January 2010 and southern Italy in February 2010, despite the fact that numerous landslidesoccur all over Europe every year. Experts know to a certain degree which parts of the continent are most exposedto landslide hazard. Nevertheless, neither the geographical location of previous landslide events nor the knowledgeabout locations with high landslide hazard necessarily point out the areas with highest landslide risk. Often,landslides occur unexpectedly and the decisions on where investments should be done to prevent future eventsare based on hasty need for showing action and political will. The goal of this study was to do a uniform andobjective analysis of landslide risk for Europe. Two independent models, an expert-based or heuristic and astatistical model (logistic regression), were developed to assess the landslide hazard. Both models are based onapplying an appropriate combination of the parameters representing susceptibility factors (slope, lithology, soilmoisture, vegetation cover, etc.) and triggering factors (extreme precipitation and seismicity). The weights ofdifferent susceptibility and triggering factors are calibrated to the information available in landslide inventoriesand physical processes. The analysis is based on uniform gridded data for Europe with a pixel resolution ofroughly 30 m x 30 m. A validation of the two hazard models by organizations in Scotland, Italy and Romaniashowed good agreement for shallow landslides and rockfalls, but the hazard models fail to cover areas with slowmoving landslides. In general, the results from the two models agree well pointing out the same countries withthe highest total and relative area exposed to landslides. Landslide risk was quantified by counting the number ofexposed people and exposed kilometers of roads and railways in each country. This process was repeated for bothmodels. The results show the highest relative exposure to landslides in small alpine countries such as Lichtenstein.In terms of total values on national level, Italy scores highest in both the extent of exposed area and number ofexposed population. Again results agree between the two models, but differences between the models are higherfor the risk than for the hazard results. The analysis gives a good overview of the landslide hazard and risk hotspotsin Europe and allows a simple ranking of areas where mitigation measures might be most effective.This contribution presents some of the experiences of the SafeLand project funded by the 7th FrameworkProgramme of the European Commission.

Identification of landslide hazard and risk &quot;hotspots&quot; in Europe

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Identification of landslide hazard and risk "hotspots" in Europe

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Florence Research

Identification of landslide hazard and risk &quot;hotspots&quot; in Europe

Abstract

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Full text

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Florence Research

Identification of landslide hazard and risk "hotspots" in Europe