Inspired by the unique neuronal activities, a new time-varying nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (TV-NARX) model is proposed for modelling nonstationary processes. The NARX nonlinear process mimics the action potential initiation and the time-varying parameters are approximated with a series of postsynaptic current like asymmetric basis functions to mimic the ion channels of the inter-neuron propagation. In the model, the time-varying parameters of the process terms are sparsely represented as the superposition of a series of asymmetric alpha basis functions in an over-complete frame. Combining the alpha basis functions with the model process terms, the system identification of the TV-NARX model from observed input and output can equivalently be treated as the system identification of a corresponding time-invariant system. The locally regularised orthogonal forward regression (LROFR) algorithm is then employed to detect the sparse model structure and estimate the associated coefficients. The excellent performance in both numerical studies and modelling of real physiological signals showed that the TV-NARX model with asymmetric basis function is more powerful and efficient in tracking both smooth trends and capturing the abrupt changes in the time-varying parameters than its symmetric counterparts
