Coppock, D. Layne

Desta, S.

Gebru, G.

Mesele, S.

English

University of Kentucky

University of Kentucky UKnowledge International Grassland Congress Proceedings XXI International Grassland Congress / VIII International Rangeland Congress Are Drought‐Related Crashes in Pastoral Cattle Herds Predictable? — More Evidence of Equilibrium Dynamics from the Douthern Ethiopian Rangelands D. Layne Coppock GL‐CRSP PARIMA G. Gebru GL‐CRSP PARIMA S. Mesele Oromia Agricultural Research Institute, Ethiopia S. Desta GL‐CRSP PARIMA Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc  Part of the Plant Sciences Commons, and the Soil Science Commons This document is available at https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/21/23-1/6 The XXI International Grassland Congress / VIII International Rangeland Congress took place in Hohhot, China from June 29 through July 5, 2008. Proceedings edited by Organizing Committee of 2008 IGC/IRC Conference Published by Guangdong People's Publishing House This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Plant and Soil Sciences at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Grassland Congress Proceedings by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact UKnowledge@lsv.uky.edu. 瞯 ]1090　 瞯 　 Multifunctional Grasslands in a Changing World 　 Volume Ⅱ 　Grasslands/Rangelands People and Policies——— Innovation Systems in Grasslands/Rangelands through Education and PracticeAre drought‐related crashes in pastoral cattle herds predictable ?— More evidence of equilibrium dynamics from the douthern Ethiopian rangelandsD .L . Cop pock 1 , G . Gebru2 , S . Mesele3 , and S . Desta41 GL‐CRSP PARIMA , Utah State University , Logan , UT , USA 84332‐5215 ; 2 GL‐CRSP PARIMA , c /o ILRI , P .O . Box5689 , A ddis Ababa , Ethiop ia ; 3 OA RI , P .O . Box 81265 , A ddis A baba , Ethiop ia ; 4 GL‐CRSP PARIMA , c /o ILR I , P .O .Box 30709 , Nairobi , K enya .Key words : Equilibrial/ non‐equilibrial ecosystems , Boran , risk management , livestock early warningIntroduction Drought routinely ravages the Greater Horn of Africa , especially rangelands . Drought leads to massive reductionsin livestock productivity and increased risk of famine and poverty for people . T raditional pastoral systems were better able tocope with drought , but restoring traditional pastoralism is nearly impossible in many cases . Other strategies focus on helpingpeople deal with drought using market development and opportunities for livelihood diversification . Livestock remain the coreeconomic engine for pastoralism and understanding how risks and returns to livestock vary over time is important to devisetactics to improve the situation . Ellis and Swift (１９８８ ) proposed that some East African pastoral systems are non‐equilibrial ,meaning that vegetation and herbivore dynamics are controlled by precipitation ; carrying capacity and livestock‐inducedecological degradation lose relevance . Livestock death losses would be unpredictable and vary with rainfall . For the semi‐aridBorana Plateau we posit a different theory based on dynamic equilibrium concepts (Desta and Coppock ２００２) . In this situation ,drought impacts on livestock production are predictable due to interactions between stocking rates and precipitation . Whenstocking rates are high the regional herd is more likely to crash if annual precipitation is low . Cattle crashes in １９８３‐５ , １９９１‐３ ,and in １９９８‐９ lead to the hypothesis that periodicity of crashes is related to time needed for the regional herd to grow to avulnerable size . Desta and Coppock (２００２ ; p . ４５０) predicted that the next cattle crash would occur by ２００５ . The purpose ofthis paper is to verify the cattle prediction and illustrate whether ecological change has occurred as a result of pastoral activity( Mesele , ２００６) .Materials and methods Herd dynamics during １９９９ to ２００７ were assessed using reviews of secondary information , results fromfocus group discussions with pastoralists , and analysis of rainfall records . Ecological trends in one ４００‐km２ district wereassessed using standard soil surveys and analysis of three satellite images collected at １５‐year intervals between １９７３ and ２００３ .Results A major cattle crash indeed occurred during ２００５‐２００６ . Herd losses were ４０‐７０％ , consistent with losses in previouscrashes . Losses were associated with a regional drought . For Yabelo District , soil surveys indicated losses of topsoil fertilityand increased compaction in heavily grazed sites compared to lightly grazed sites . Analysis of land‐cover change indicated thatlarge portions of the original grasslands were lost to bush encroachment and maize cultivation over ３０ years .Conclusions We accurately predicted the most recent cattle crash several years in advance . Ecological analyses confirmed thatpastoralism has directly and indirectly changed the environment in several detrimental ways . These results indicate that thisecosystem is dynamic yet equilibrial and that interaction among vegetation and livestock components is important inunderstanding ecological change . Such findings can better inform pastoral development and relief strategies for this region .ReferencesDesta , S . , and D .L . Coppock . ２００２ . Cattle population dynamics in the southern Ethiopian rangelands , １９８０‐９７ . Journal o fRange Management ５５ : ４３９‐４５１ .Ellis , J . , and D . Swift .１９８８ . Stability of African pastoral ecosystems : Alternate paradigms and implications for development .Journal o f Range Management ４１ : ４５０‐４５９ .Mesele , S . ２００６ . Land Use Dynamics and Impact on Selected Physiochemical Properties of Soils in Yabelo Woreda of theBorana Lowlands , Southern Ethiopia . Master摧s thesis . Alemaya University , Ethiopia .

Are Drought‐Related Crashes in Pastoral Cattle Herds Predictable? — More Evidence of Equilibrium Dynamics from the Douthern Ethiopian Rangelands

https://uknowledge.uky.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3897&context=igc

Are Drought‐Related Crashes in Pastoral Cattle Herds Predictable? — More Evidence of Equilibrium Dynamics from the Douthern Ethiopian Rangelands

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

University of Kentucky