Angerer, Jay Peter

Bolor-Erdene, L.

Granville-Ross, Sean

Narangarel, D.

Sheehy, Dennis

Stewart, Tim

Tsogoo, D.

Urgamal, M.

English

University of Kentucky

University of Kentucky UKnowledge International Grassland Congress Proceedings 21st International Grassland Congress / 8th International Rangeland Congress Gobi Forage: An Early Warning System for Livestock in the Gobi Region of Mongolia L. Bolor-Erdene Mercy Corps, Mongolia Jay Peter Angerer Texas A&M University Sean Granville-Ross Mercy Corps, Mongolia M. Urgamal Mercy Corps, Mongolia D. Narangarel Mercy Corps, Mongolia See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc  Part of the Plant Sciences Commons, and the Soil Science Commons This document is available at https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/21/5-1/16 The 21st International Grassland Congress / 8th International Rangeland Congress took place in Hohhot, China from June 29 through July 5, 2008. Proceedings edited by Organizing Committee of 2008 IGC/IRC Conference Published by Guangdong People's Publishing House This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Plant and Soil Sciences at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Grassland Congress Proceedings by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact UKnowledge@lsv.uky.edu. Presenter Information L. Bolor-Erdene, Jay Peter Angerer, Sean Granville-Ross, M. Urgamal, D. Narangarel, D. Tsogoo, Tim Stewart, and Dennis Sheehy This event is available at UKnowledge: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/21/5-1/16 瞯 ]656　 瞯 　 Multifunctional Grasslands in a Changing World 　 Volume Ⅰ 　Grasslands/Rangelands Resources and Ecology ——— Application of Information Technology in Monitoring and Managing Grasslands/Rangelands ResourcesGobi Forage : an early warning system for livestock in the Gobi region of MongoliaL . Bolor‐Erdene1 , Jay A ngerer2 , Sean Granv ille‐Ross1 , M . Urgamal1 , D . Narangarel1 , D . Tsogoo1 , T im Stewart1 ,and Dennis Sheehy 21 Mercy Corps , P .O . Box 761 , Ulaanbaatar‐49 , Mongolia ; E‐mail : bolorerdene ＠ gobi . initiative . org . mn , ２Dept ofEcosystem Science & Management , Texas A&M University , College Station , Texas , USAKey words : drought , Mongolia , forage monitoring , NDVIIntroduction During the period from １９９９ to ２００２ , Mongolia experienced a series of droughts and severe winters that loweredlivestock numbers by approximately ３０％ countrywide . In the Gobi region , livestock mortality reached ５０％ with manyhouseholds losing entire herds ( Siurua & Swift ２００２) . In March ２００４ , a program was initiated by the United States Agencyfor International Development ( USAID ) through the Global Livestock Collaborative Research and Support Program ( GL‐CRSP) . The goal of this program was to develop forage monitoring technologies that provide early warning of drought andwinter disasters to improve livestock herder decision making in the Gobi region . The program has two major objectives : ( １) todevelop a regional forage monitoring system that provides near‐real time spatial and temporal assessment of current andforecasted forage conditions , and (２) to develop a communication infrastructure that provides stakeholders with data on forageconditions to assist them in making timely and specific management decisions .Materials and methods Since May ２００４ , ２９７ monitoring sites have been established in ８ provinces in the Gobi region ( Figure １ ) .At each site , vegetation , soil , and grazing data were collected for input into the PHYGROW forage production model ( Stuth etal . ２００３ ) . PHYGROW is driven by near real‐time climate data acquired from the National Oceanic & AtmosphericAdministration摧s ( NOAA) CMORPH system ( Joyce et al . , ２００４ ) . The forage model outputs for the monitoring sites arecoupled with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ( NDVI) data using geostatistics to create surface maps of forage yield anddeviations from long‐term average . Statistical forecasting ( Stuth et al . , ２００３) is used to project forage conditions for ６０ daysinto the future .　 Figure 1 Current f orage dev iation f rom long‐term averagef or the Sep tember 1 to 15 , 2007 period in the study area .Results Maps of forage availability and deviation from long‐term average are produced each half month . A sixty‐dayforecast of forage conditions is also provided . Maps aredistributed via mail and internet to local and regionalgovernments . Situation reports , derived from model and mapoutputs , are broadcast weekly on national radio . During thesummer and fall of ２００７ , the early warning system was able todetect severe drought conditions in the Gobi Altai andDundgobi provinces . ( Figure １ ) . A survey conducted inOctober ２００７ indicated that the radio broadcasts were aneffective means of communicating the early warninginformation and that the maps were useful for providinginformation for livestock movement and decision making .Conclusions A forage monitoring system has been developed toprovide early warning for below normal forage or catastrophicwinter conditions on rangelands in the Gobi region ofMongolia . The system has been effective in identifyingregional drought and providing information on probableconditions within a ６０ day window . Information from thissystem will allow stakeholders access to real‐time informationto reduce risk of livestock mortality , protect the ecologicalstability of the rangeland resources .ReferencesJoyce R .J . , J .E . Janowiak , P .A . Arkin & P . Xie ( ２００４ ) . CMORPH : A method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution . Journal o f H ydrometeorology , ５ ,４８７‐５０３ .Siurua H . & J . Swift ( ２００２ ) . Drought and zud but no famine ( yet ) in the Mongolian herding economy . IDS Bulletin ,Institute of Development Studies , ３３ , ８８‐９７ .Stuth J . , J . Angerer , R . Kaitho , K . Zander , A . Jama , C . Heath , J . Bucher , W . Hamilton , R . Conner & D . Inbody(２００３) .The Livestock Early Warning System ( LEWS) : Blending technology and the human dimension to support grazingdecisions . A rid L ands Newsletter No . ５３ , May / June .Current Forage Available Deviation From Long-term Average D Very Good - Scarce D Good - Drought - ~edium - E><1 remeD<ought - Poor 0 Provin~Boundarie& 

Gobi Forage: An Early Warning System for Livestock in the Gobi Region of Mongolia

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Gobi Forage: An Early Warning System for Livestock in the Gobi Region of Mongolia

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