Angerer, Jay Peter

Bolor‐Erdene, L.

Tsogoo, D.

Urgamal, M.

English

University of Kentucky

University of Kentucky UKnowledge International Grassland Congress Proceedings 21st International Grassland Congress / 8th International Rangeland Congress Verification of a Forage Simulation Model Used for a Livestock Early Warning System in the Gobi Region of Mongolia Jay Peter Angerer Texas A&M University L. Bolor‐Erdene Mercy Corps, Mongolia M. Urgamal Mercy Corps, Mongolia D. Tsogoo Mercy Corps, Mongolia Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc  Part of the Plant Sciences Commons, and the Soil Science Commons This document is available at https://uknowledge.uky.edu/igc/21/5-1/8 The 21st International Grassland Congress / 8th International Rangeland Congress took place in Hohhot, China from June 29 through July 5, 2008. Proceedings edited by Organizing Committee of 2008 IGC/IRC Conference Published by Guangdong People's Publishing House This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Plant and Soil Sciences at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Grassland Congress Proceedings by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact UKnowledge@lsv.uky.edu. 瞯 ]648　 瞯 　 Multifunctional Grasslands in a Changing World 　 Volume Ⅰ 　Grasslands/Rangelands Resources and Ecology ——— Application of Information Technology in Monitoring and Managing Grasslands/Rangelands ResourcesVerification of a forage simulation model used for a livestock early warning system in the GobiRegion of MongoliaJay A ngerer1 , L . Bolor‐Erdene2 , M . Urgamal2 , and D . Tsogoo21 Dep t o f Ecosystem Science & Management , Texas A &M University , College Station , Texas , USA , E‐mail : j angerer＠cnrit .tamu .edu . 2 Mercy Corps , P .O . Box 761 , Ulaanbaatar‐49 , Mongolia .Key words : drought , Mongolia , forage monitoring , NDVI , cokrigingIntroduction The assessment of vegetation productivity is especially important in Mongolia where drought and winter disasters( dzud) that deplete vegetation resources represent a major risk confronting herders . During the period from １９９９ to ２００１ , asmuch as ３５％ of the nation摧s livestock was lost to these two disaster events . To help address these challenges to livestockproduction in Mongolia , a livestock early warning system was implemented with the objective of developing a forage monitoringsystem that provides near‐real time spatial and temporal assessment of current and forecasted forage conditions . As part of thiseffort , we sought to assess １ ) the ability of the PHYGROW forage simulation model to accurately predict forage biomass atselected sites across the landscape using near‐real time climate data , and ２ ) the feasibility of using geostatistical interpolationmethods that combine forage model output with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ( NDVI) to produce landscape levelmaps of forage production .Materials and methods Using the protocols described by Stuth et al . (２００５) for implementing livestock early warning systems ,２９７ monitoring sites were established in ８ provinces in the Gobi region of Mongolia during May ２００４ to September ２００７ .During the first visit to each site , vegetation , soil , and grazing data were collected to parameterize the PHYGROW forageproduction model ( Stuth et al . ２００５ ) . PHYGROW was driven by near real‐time climate data acquired from the NationalOceanic & Atmospheric Administration摧s ( NOAA) CMORPH system ( Joyce et al . , ２００４) . To verify the PHYGROW model ,forage biomass was collected at each of the monitoring sites ２ to ４ times after the initial visit . The clipped biomass wasstatistically compared to the predicted biomass from PHYGROW . For validated sites , the forage model outputs were coupledwith NDVI data using the geostatistical method of cokriging to create interpolated maps of forage biomass . Cross validation( Isaaks and Srivastava １９８９) was used to assess the performance of cokriging for mapping biomass .Results For the majority of the monitoring sites , we found a very good correspondence between forage biomass clipped at themonitoring sites and that predicted by the PHYGROW model ( R２ ＝ ０ .６９) . The standard error of prediction for the validationwas ８３ .６ kg / ha which was less than the overall standard error associated with the clipped biomass ( １１５ .３ kg / ha) indicatingthat the variability associated with validation was much less than the variability of the field collected data across all sites . Themodel had a tendency to slightly under‐predict at higher biomass and slightly over‐predict at low biomass conditions .Maps of forage biomass were produced every １５‐１６ days ( to match the NDVI image availability ) during the growing season( May to September ) for ２００５ and ２００６ using cokriging . The cross validation of model‐predicted forage biomass and thecokriged estimates of forage biomass resulted in reasonable estimates of mapped biomass ( R２ ＝ ０畅７１ ) . The standard error ofprediction for cross validation was １１１ .７４ kg / ha which was very similar to that seen for the clipping data ( １１５ .３ kg / ha) ,indicating that the cokriging procedure variability was similar to that encountered with the field clipping data .Conclusions The results of this study indicate that the use of the PHYGROW forage simulation model would be useful forpredicting forage biomass on a near real‐time basis in the Gobi region of Mongolia . The forage model output , when combinedwith NDVI using geostatistics , results in the production of reasonably accurate maps of forage biomass . These maps provideboth a spatial and temporal assessment of forage conditions that can assist herders , as well as local and regional governments ,in decision making for livestock in the face of drought or winter disaster .ReferencesIsaaks , E .H . , Srivastava , R .M . (１９８９) . Applied Geostatistics . New York , Oxford University Press .Joyce R .J . , Janowiak , J .E . , Arkin , P .A . Xie , P . ( ２００４ ) . CMORPH : A method that produces global precipitationestimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution . Journal o f H ydrometeorology ,５ , ４８７‐５０３ .Stuth , J .W . , Angerer , J . , Kaitho , R . , Jama , A . and Marambii , R . ( ２００５ ) . Livestock early warning system for Africarange lands . In : Boken , V . K . , Cracknell , A . P . , and Heathcote , R . L . Monitoring and Predicting A griculturalDrought : A Global S tudy . New York , Oxford University Press , ２８３‐２９４ .

Verification of a Forage Simulation Model Used for a Livestock Early Warning System in the Gobi Region of Mongolia

https://uknowledge.uky.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2741&amp;context=igc

Verification of a Forage Simulation Model Used for a Livestock Early Warning System in the Gobi Region of Mongolia

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

University of Kentucky