Space Climate Manifestation in Earth Prices - from Medieval England Up to Modern Usa

Abstract

In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that includes several nonlinear transition elements. These non-linear elements are characterized by threshold sensitivity to external parameters and lead to very inhomogeneous local sensitivity of the price to space weather conditions. It is noted that "soft type" models are the most adequate for description of this class of connections. Two main observational effects suitable for testing causal connections of this type of sensitivity are considered: burst-like price reactions on changes in solar activity and price asymmetry for selected phases of the sunspot cycle. The connection, discovered earlier for wheat prices of Medieval England, is examined in this work on the basis of another 700-year data set of consumable prices in England. Using the same technique as in the previous part of our work (Pistilnik and Yom Din 2004) we show that statistical parameters of the interval distributions for price bursts of consumables basket and for sunspot minimum states are similar one to another, like it was reported earlier for wheat price bursts. Possible sources of these consistencies between three different multiyear samples are discussed. For search of possible manifestations of the "space weather - wheat market" connection in modern time, we analyze dynamics of wheat prices in the USA in the twentieth century. We show that the wheat prices revealed a maximum/minimum price asymmetry consistent with the phases of the sunspot cycle. We discuss possible explanations of this observed asymmetry, unexpected under conditions of globalization of the modern wheat market.Comment: First International Symposium on Space Climate: Direct and Indirect Observations of Long-Term Solar Activity, 20-23 June 2004, Oulu, Finlan