Without exception, global warming affects the water
resources in Korea. Several climate change projects
have been initiated for future water resources assessment
but have produced very different projections with
a significant range of heterogeneities. Therefore, it is
necessary to develop a standard procedure and scheme
that can reduce this heterogeneity. In this study, we
first examine all general circulation model (GCM) scenarios
available at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre.
The six A1B GCM scenarios are then selected (such as
INM, CCCma, MPI_MIUB, UKMO, NIES and NCAR)
for a climate change assessment of water resources in
Korea. A modified version of a reliability ensemble
average (M-REA) has been proposed as a multi-model
ensemble weighting scheme that can combine the heterogeneous
scenarios. When applied to the six A1B
GCM scenarios, M-REA projected that Korea on an
average will experience a 9.43% increase in precipitation
in the year 2037.
Keywords: Climate change, ensemble, heterogeneitie
