Rapid urban population growth and the associated expansion of urban areas in China (as elsewhere) present significant environmental challenges, and threaten urban and regional ecological security. Modeling land use changes is one way to aid the management of cities. Using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) software platforms, land use data for the years 1989, 1996, 2004, and 2010 for the area inside the Jinan third ring-road were interpreted. An urban green space network was developed, as a core strategy to ensure landscape ecological security, and subjected to ecological sensitivity analysis. The green space network and the result of the ecological sensitivity analysis were integrated into the exclusion/attraction layer of an existing cellular automaton model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land use, Exclusion/attraction, Urban extent, Transportation, and Hillshade). A development scenario for land use change was constructed that integrates these Landscape Ecological Security Development (LESD) strategies and reveals trends in urban growth for the different development scenarios between 2011 and 2040. The results of the LESD scenario were compared with those from two other development scenarios: the Historical Trend Development (HTD) and the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD). The study revealed three significant findings. First, change in the urban area in the study will be dominated by urban edge growth and transit-oriented development, while spontaneous and cluster growth were not obvious. Second, the growth rate of built-up land in the urban area in all three scenarios exhibits emerging trends. The growth rate, according to the LESD scenario, is significantly lower than that for the HTD and TOD scenarios, and encroachment into natural ecological space (such as woodlands, water, and agricultural land) is less than that in the other two scenarios. This result indicates that the LESD scenario can protect natural ecological spaces effectively and can significantly reduce the ecological security risk. This aligns with the integration of smart growth and smart conservation. Third, integrating LESD into the SLEUTH model results in the ability to evaluate urban development policies and can help characterize development strategies for urban landscape ecological security. The results of this study provide reference data and a basis for decision-making for the future management of urban growth, urban planning, and land use planning
