This article explores expectations and outcomes. It documents the expectations for the fintech lending industry, which has emerged in this decade, and compares such expectations to market outcomes. It presents an evidence-based analysis for policy making decisions. Part one of the article documents expectations—possible benefits and risks of fintech lending—through large-scale surveys and interviews of industry, consumer and government stakeholders. Part two of the article examines market outcomes—benefits and risks that have been realized or failed to materialize as documented by studies of substantial data sets of various types of fintech loans. The benefits and risks explored include increased access to credit, lower costs, lack of transparency and delinquency and default. After comparing expectations and outcomes, the article considers policy implications, particularly the implications for chartering special purpose national banks
