Lake area changes and their influence on factors in arid and semi-arid regions along the Silk Road

Abstract

In the context of global warming, the changes in major lakes and their responses to the influence factors in arid and semi-arid regions along the Silk Road are especially important for the sustainable development of local water resources. In this study, the areas of 24 lakes were extracted using MODIS NDVI data, and their spatial-temporal characteristics were analyzed. In addition, the relationship between lake areas and the influence factors, including air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, land use and land cover change (LULCC) and population density in the watersheds, were investigated. The results indicated that the areas of most lakes shrank, and the total area decreased by 22,189.7 km2 from 2001 to 2016, except for those of the lakes located on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The air temperature was the most important factor for all the lakes and increased at a rate of 0.113 °C/a during the past 16 years. LULCC and the increasing population density markedly influenced the lakes located in the middle to western parts of this study area. Therefore, our results connecting lake area changes in the study region highlight the great challenge of water resources and the urgency of implementation of the green policy in the One Belt and One Road Initiative through international collaboration