The afforestation of upland areas in the UK has been the largest rural land use change this century. As a consequence of afforestation the bed load yields of upland catchments have been shown to increase substantially. The upland catchment bed load is transported downstream, through the transfer zone to the lowland reaches where it may enter storage in barforms, cause flow diversion and cause channel instability. This study investigates the Afon Trannon, a river in mid-Wales whose upland catchment was afforested between 1948 and 1978 and whose lowland channel is currently unstable. Historical rates of channel change in the lowland channel have been quantified using aerial photogrammetry in ERDAS Imagine GIS. Channel instability is shown to increase significantly between 1963 and 1976, some 15 years after upland catchment afforestation. However, upland catchment bed load yields are shown to be of low magnitude (up to an estimated maximum of6.35 t km-2 yr") and incapable of producing the high medium-term lowland channel change rates observed (up to 1.88 m yr" between 1963 and 1976). Contemporary channel DTMs constructed from field survey data have allowed the construction of a contemporary lowland channel sediment budget. Local inputs of bed load from composite bank erosion are shown to dominate in the budget and reaches of maximum instability are shown to correspond with the location of these composite banks. Additionally. flood magnitude and frequency are shown to have increased since 1988 from a maximum stage of 1.50 m between 1969 and 1988 to a maximum stage of2.23 m between 1989 and 2000. A conceptual model is presented in which the medium-term instability of the lowland Afon Trannon is suggested to be triggered by local lowland bed aggradation as a result of elevated upland catchment bed load yields and a risk assessment diagram provides advice to river engineers and fluvial geomorphologists interested in assessing the potential stability of lowland rivers whose upland catchments have been afforested
