Konsistensi Angin Zonal Terhadap Posisi ITCZ Untuk Menentukan Onset Monsun

Abstract

Consistency of zonal pattern to the ITCZ over southern Indonesia Maritim Continent (IMC) (2-10oS, 105-150oE) have investigated using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data of NOAA Satellite and MTSAT Satellite data from 2008 to 2011. Results described zonal wind over 850 milibar consist to ITCZ position based on minimum temperature black body of MTSAT Satellite cloud cover. Strong westerly was identified while ITCZ on nothern equator. On the other hand, strong easterly was identified while ITCZ on southern equator. While ITCZ jump from northern (southern) equator to southern (northern), zonal wind also migrate from easterly (westerly) to westerly (easterly). Hereafter, the times periode could be used to identify onset monsoon date over southern IMC. Zonal wind characteristic for explaine monsoon onset date should have significant intensity (>3 m.s) and persistent (> 10-day). Synoptic scale disturbance in Pacific Ocean influence to zonal wind stability in transition season periods. La Nina phase relate to intensify westerly over southern IMC, such as occured on transition season (from rainy to dry) of 2008 and 2011. On the contrary, El Nino influence to minimize easterly so that westerly tend to persist, such as on 2010 of transition season periods.Hal. 80-8