A comparison of Pre and Post 2008 inflation trends for the consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Food and Energy: An Empirical Analysis 1999-2018.

Abstract

Despite an aggressive policy of Monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Inflation seems to be rather benign after the 2008 recession. In this study I compare inflation trends before and after the 2008 recession to determine if the long term inflation trend has significantly changed due to the 2008 economic rescission. I use the inflation metric CPI -Less Food and Energy because it is a measurable, less volatile measure of inflation. I also forecast CPI (LF&E) for 2018 using Linear Trend regressions adjusted for a root mean square error (RMSE). I use an error tolerance of 2% to determine forecasting accuracy.https://ecommons.udayton.edu/stander_posters/2444/thumbnail.jp