What meaning does epidemiologic evidence have for the individual? In evidence-based medicine, epidemiologic evidence measures the patient’s risk of the outcome or the change in their risk due to an intervention. The patient’s risk is commonly understood as an individual probability. The problem of understanding epidemiologic evidence and risk thus becomes the challenge of interpreting individual patient probabilities. I argue that the patient’s risk is interpreted ontically, as a propensity. After exploring formidable problems with this interpretation in the medical context, I propose an epistemic reinterpretation of individual patient probabilities as credences. On this view, epidemiologic evidence informs medical uncertainty
