Development of predictive formulae or qualitative statements about the probable outcome of control campaigns entails knowledge of bait quality and distribution, behaviour, vagaries of weather at the time of the control campaign, and other factors which govern the probability that the target animals will accept bait. This paper collates experience in recognising, estimating and using some of these variables for predicting the outcome of large-scale poisoning, and discusses possible approaches to the solution of some hard-core problems
