The fraction of high-redshift sources which are multiply-imaged by
intervening galaxies is strongly dependent on the cosmological constant, and so
can be a useful probe of the cosmological model. However its power is limited
by various systematic (and random) uncertainties in the calculation of lensing
probabilities, one of the most important of which is the dynamical
normalisation of elliptical galaxies. Assuming ellipticals' mass distributions
can be modelled as isothermal spheres, the mass normalisation depends on: the
velocity anisotropy; the luminosity density; the core radius; and the area over
which the velocity dispersion is measured. The differences in the lensing
probability and optical depth produced by using the correct normalisation can
be comparable to the differences between even the most extreme cosmological
models. The existing data is not sufficient to determine the correct
normalisation with enough certainty to allow lensing statistics to be used to
their full potential. However, as the correct lensing probability is almost
certainly higher than is usually assumed, upper bounds on the cosmological
constant are not weakened by these possibilities.Comment: MNRAS, in press; 13 pages, 22 figure
