This paper， in the attempt of presenting a part of study examining the theoretical and empirical relationships between driver，s licence ownership and passenger car ownership， shows the results of a long term forecast of the driver，s licence ownership by sex and age－group in Japan． The method of cohort analysis is applied to Japan，s data in order to estimate the future rates of driver，s licence ownership． It has been fou訟d that， under assumptio且s set in this study， the marginal increlnent of total driver，s licence ownership remains approximately six to eight times larger than that of population level ulltil the beginning of the next century．論文(Article
