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Stochastic point process model for fine-scale rainfall time series

Abstract

A stochastic point process model, which is constructed from a class of doubly stochastic Poisson processes, is proposed to analyse point rainfall time series observed in fine sub-hourly time scales. Under the framework of this stochastic model rain cells arrive according to a Poisson process whose arrival rate is governed by a finite-state Markov chain. Each cell of the point process has a random lifetime during which instantaneous random depths (pulses) of rainfall bursts occur as another Poisson process. The structure of this model enables us to study the variability of rainfall characteristics at small time intervals. The covariance structure of the pulse occurrence process is studied. Second-order properties of the time series of cumulative rainfall in discrete intervals are derived to model 5-minute rainfall data, over a period of 48 years, from Germany. The results show that the proposed model is capable of reproducing rainfall properties well at various sub-hourly resolutions

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