A Critical Investigation into Whole System Transitions to Low Carbon Futures and New Sources of Energy Flexibility in Great Britain's Electricity Sector

Abstract

Great Britain’s (GB) electricity sector is transitioning to low carbon futures in response to various pressures including legally binding carbon emission targets while ensuring security of supply. Such transitions are likely to focus on a mix of inflexible low carbon generation and new sources of energy flexibility, e.g. demand side flexibility, storage and/or interconnection. Existing studies recognise that transitions are uncertain with actors across the whole sector playing a role. However, they suggest tidy and clearly delineated futures and fail to fully capture the messiness emerging from actor interactions. Drawing on transitions research concepts including the Multi-level Perspective, whole system analysis, architectural innovation, power and discourses, this study critically investigates whole system transitions to low carbon futures and new sources of energy flexibility in GB’s electricity sector. Data were collected via semi-structured interviews with 28 senior figures across the sector and analysed using thematic coding and discourse analysis. This study shows that five futures are articulated representing five discourse coalitions (1) ‘Market-based’, (2) ‘Network-focussed’, (3) ‘Policy-driven’, (4) ‘Consumer-centric’; and (5) ‘Prosumer-led’. These futures are messy because actors hold a plurality of views and cannot be simply marshalled into discourse coalitions. This underscores the complexity of electricity sector transitions and reveals important issues such as different ontologies and framings of energy flexibility. By investigating contemporary energy transition discourses, the study argues that a system level understanding of transitions and changes in future making practices currently dominated by quantitative modelling analyses and fixed transition frameworks are essential to effectively manage transitions. Further research is needed to investigate and find ways to better attend to the messiness and multiplicity of energy transitions from a whole systems perspective. This exploratory study is situated in a broader landscape of transitions research about energy futures and provides useful recommendations for both industry and academic communities