Uncertainty and Reasonable Assurance: Why We Need to Teach Regulators to Focus on Uncertainty in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Abstract

The rationality of regulatory decisions is inextricably linked to an explicit representation of the uncertainty underlying scientific predictions. The level of coverage of uncertainty in training programs on risk assessment and risk management developed by the EPA is examined in light of the above thesis. Using the EPA's Office Of Drinking Water's Workshops on Assessment and Management of Drinking Water Contamination (EPA, 1988) as an example, concepts for formalizing consideration of uncertainty are presented. A case study on the risks from radon in drinking water is developed to illustrate the recommended level of coverage of uncertainty in EPA training programs.Master of Science in Public Healt