Police overestimation of criminal career homogeneity

Abstract

Police presumptions about criminal career trajectories have been little studied. The exploratory study reported here involved 42 police staff of varying rank and experience. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire which asked them to predict the type of offence that an individual with specified prior record was most likely to commit next. Participating police personnel substantially overstated the homogeneity of criminal careers, i.e. the nature of prior offences determined their prediction of their next offence more than available official data would deem reasonable. An incidental finding was that officers who rated the probability of further offending highest were also those who thought criminal careers most specialised. Theimplications for operational police decision making are discussed and held to be profound