Lunds universitet/Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
Abstract
The SLEUTH urban model is developed with sets of predefined growing rules involving Spontaneous Growth, New Spreading Center Growth, Edge Growth, Road Influenced Growth and Self-modification. They are applied continuously to lead the urban simulation to a specific morphology. A SLEUTH land use model was set up to simulate urban growth trajectory of Dongguan city from 1997 to 2009. The accuracy of localized parameters was evaluated to illuminate the growth pattern of Dongguan. Two different scenarios were set to predict the urban development from 2022 to 2030. Edge Growth is the dominant force of Dongguan's urbanization: regions adjacent to growth centers are more likely to be urbanized than remote area in general. Rapid urban expansion takes up large amount of other land types, around 2030, urbanization will reach the critical state in spatial. Unlike excessive growth rate in scenario 1, the urbanization speed is obviously more reasonable and sustainable in scenario 2, which confirms SLEUTH urban model is a good assistant of urban planning to avoid willful expansion with a scenario forecast. To protect ecological environment and promoting sustainable development of the region, relevant decision makers should take effective strategies to control urban sprawl. By the set of forecast scenarios, SLEUTH can certainly predict future urban development as an auxiliary to urban planners and government.Dongguan is under rapid urbanization in these decades. SLEUTH is an urban land use model named after the six input layers (Slope, Land use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation and Hill shade), and it is applied for simulating how surrounding land use changes due to urban expansion. A SLEUTH model was coupled with multi-source GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and RS (Remote Sensing) data to simulate urban growth trajectory of Dongguan city from 1997 to 2009. The accuracy of localized parameters was evaluated to illuminate the growth pattern of Dongguan. Based on the hypothesis that the urbanization process is as fast as before, a historical scenario from 2010 to 2050 was built up to choose the suitable study periods. In order to prove SLEUTH is able to offer reasonable outcomes for urban plan, two different scenarios were set to predict the urban development from 2022 to 2030, which shows SLEUTH is able to offer reasonable outcomes to government policy makers. Finally, the dynamic mechanism of urban growth combined with local characteristics was discussed. Some suggestions were also proposed for future urban planning and policy making in this study
