Ashcraft, Catherine

Diessner, Natallia Leuchanka

Gardner, Kevin H.

Hamilton, Lawrence C.

English

UNH Scholars' Repository

University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository New Hampshire EPSCoR Research Institutes, Centers and Programs 4-11-2018 I’ll Be Dammed! Public Preferences and the Future of Dams in New Hampshire Natallia Leuchanka Diessner University of New Hampshire, nhe4@wildcats.unh.edu Lawrence C. Hamilton University of New Hampshire, lawrence.hamilton@unh.edu Kevin H. Gardner University of New Hampshire - Main Campus, kevin.gardner@unh.edu Catherine Ashcraft University of New Hampshire, catherine.ashcraft@unh.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/nh_epscor Recommended Citation Leuchanka, N., Hamilton, L.C., Gardner, K., Ashcraft, C.M. 2018. I’ll Be Dammed! Public Preferences and the Future of Dams in New Hampshire. AAG Annual Meeting. April 10-14, New Orleans, LA. This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the Research Institutes, Centers and Programs at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in New Hampshire EPSCoR by an authorized administrator of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For more information, please contact nicole.hentz@unh.edu. I’ll Be Dammed! Public Preferences and the Future of Dams in New HampshireN A T A L L I A  L E U C H A N K A ,  P H D  S T U D E N TC O - A U T H O R S :  D R .  L A W R E N C E  C .  H A M I L T O N ,  D R .  K E V I N  G A R D N E R ,  D R .  C A T H E R I N E  M .  A S H C R A F T  U N I V E R S I T Y  O F  N E W  H A M P S H I R EA M E R I C A N  A S S O C I A T I O N  O F  G E O G R A P H E R S  ( A A G )  A N N U A L  M E E T I N GN E W  O R L E A N SA P R I L  1 1 ,  2 0 1 8NSF #IIA-1539071Presentation Roadmap• Overview of dams in NH• Study motivation• Methods• Results • Ongoing work• QuestionsPhoto: N.LeuchankaCocheco River, Dover, NHOverview of Dams in New Hampshire• 14,000+ in New England • 2,000+ “active” dams in NH• Many nearing end of their engineering lifespan• Ownership• Private (77%)• Municipal (13%)• State (9%)• Federal & utility (<1%)• Public opinion often drives decisions• Contentious• Significant public funding for river restorationDams in New Hampshire (shown in red dots). Source: NH dam inventory layer from NH GRANIT.Overview Study motivation Methods Results Ongoing work QuestionsWanted: Human Dimensions of Dam Decisions• Quantitative studies focus on single municipality • Place-based, but not necessarily representative of NH public opinion• State or regional scale studies focus on small number of cases• Qualitative: rich context about specific stakeholder groups, but not necessarily representative of NH public opinion• Need for statewide public opinion dataOverview Study motivation Methods Results Ongoing work QuestionsMethods• Included 2 questions in Feb. 2018 Granite State Poll (GSP) - UNH Survey Center• Random sample of NH adults (18+)• 566 telephone surveys• Sample weighted to represent NH population• Analysis in STATA softwareOverview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps QuestionsMethods: Survey Questions to Explore TradeoffsIn your opinion, is it more important to use dams on New Hampshire rivers and streams to generate electricity or is it more important to remove dams and allow free-flowing rivers that benefit fish and wildlife? [rotated response order]• Use dams to generate electricity • Remove the dams and allow free-flowing rivers• DK/NAOverview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps QuestionsIn your opinion, is it more important to keep dams in place on New Hampshire rivers and streams in order to preserve the lakes and ponds behind them, or is it more important to remove the dams and allow free-flowing rivers that benefit fish and wildlife? [rotated response order]• Use dams to preserve the lakes and ponds behind dams • Remove the dams and allow free-flowing rivers • DK/NAWHO supports dam removal?Overview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps QuestionsOverview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps QuestionsOverview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps Questions• Democrats more likely to choose removal• Level of education has no systematic effect on probability of choosing removal over keeping a dam• Younger residents more likely to choose removal• Females more likely to choose removal, regardless of political party affiliationWho supports dam removal over keeping dams for electricity generation?Overview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps Questions• PARTY HAS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT• Level of education has no systematic effect on probability of choosing removal over keeping a dam• Younger residents more likely to choose removal• Females more likely to choose removal, regardless of political party affiliationWho supports dam removal over keeping dams for maintaining lakes and ponds?Overview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps QuestionsKey Findings• Education has no significant effect on people’s preferences, regardless of tradeoff (hydropower or lakes)Overview Study motivation Methods Results Next Steps Questions• Political ideology and party affiliation drive people’s preferences on dam removal, when the alternative is to keep dams for hydropower• In contrast, political ideology and party affiliation have no significanteffect on preferences when the alternative is to keep dams for lakes and ponds• Age and gender are strong predictors of people’s preferences, regardless of tradeoff • Younger people and females more likely to prefer removalOngoing Work: Survey Dataset Expansion• 4 questions added to April 2018 poll• Increase sample size of question exploring hydropower preferences • Better understand preferences by exploring 3 additional tradeoffsOverview Study motivation Methods Results Ongoing work QuestionsPreserving New Hampshire’s industrial historyPreserving recreation associated with lakes and pondsPreserving waterfront property valuesOngoing Work: Human Dimensions of Dam DecisionsOverview Study motivation Methods Results Ongoing work QuestionsBetter understand decision-making landscape around dams in New Hampshire & New EnglandQuantitative: Statewide public opinion surveydataQualitative: Rich context about specific stakeholder groupsRole-play negotiation simulationsInterviews Thank you! Questions? Comments? Photos: N.LeuchankaCobbosseecontee Stream, Gardiner, MEGolden Brook, Windham, NHConnecticut River, Wilder, VT & West Lebanon, NHAshuelot River, Keene, NHAny opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science FoundationOverview Study motivation Methods Results Ongoing work Questions

I’ll Be Dammed! Public Preferences and the Future of Dams in New Hampshire

University of New Hampshire

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I’ll Be Dammed! Public Preferences and the Future of Dams in New Hampshire

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