Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need
for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve
statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal
relationships. One possible reason is that humans extrapolate from past
experience to new, unseen situations: that is, they encode beliefs over causal
invariances, allowing for sound generalization from the observations they
obtain from directly acting in the world.
Here we outline a Bayesian model of causal induction where beliefs over
competing causal hypotheses are modeled using probability trees. Based on this
model, we illustrate why, in the general case, we need interventions plus
constraints on our causal hypotheses in order to extract causal information
from our experience.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures; 2011 NIPS Workshop on Philosophy and Machine
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